Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte Preta
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Cuiaba the most likely outcome at 83% — fair odds of 1.20. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Cuiaba: LWDWL; Ponte Preta: LWLLL.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Cuiaba | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 74 | 26 |
| Shots | 15 | 2 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 0 |
| Corners | 7 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 19 | 15 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 6 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Cuiaba win 87% happened
- Draw 9% did not happen
- Ponte Preta win 4% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 66% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
- João Carlos GK
- Luisão FW
- Calebe MF
- Eric DF
- Igor Inocêncio DF
- Raul MF
- David Miguel MF
- Lorenzo MF
- Kauan FW
- Jean Dias FW
- Fábio Gomes FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Vitor Mendes — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- João Basso — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Ponte Preta 4-1-4-1
- Vinicius GK
- Caran Gabriel DF
- S. Palacios DF
- Gustavo Almeida DF
- Diego Porfírio DF
- emanuell ferreira FW
- Julio MF
- Juan Rodrigues
- denis MF
- David da Hora FW
- Brandão FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Danilo Barcelos — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- André Lima — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 85 / 10 / 4% when the line-ups came out, 87 / 9 / 4% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 83% | 12% | 5% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 91% | 3% | 6% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (Cuiaba wins – draws – Ponte Preta wins).
Cuiaba scored 1.4 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Ponte Preta scored 0.2 and conceded 2.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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