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Primera A

Millonarios vs Once Caldas

The sharp market makes Millonarios the most likely outcome at 57% — fair odds of 1.75. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Millonarios: WDDDW; Once Caldas: WWDLL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Millonarios anyway? The best price we see is 1.72 at Betano, -1.5% against the fair odds of 1.75. Every bookmaker pays less than the fair price here: whichever you choose, you pay the margin.

Most likely result

1 Home win 57%
1X2
Sharp now57%25%18%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded57%25%18%
Our model51%28%21%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.77
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.70 / 3.61 / 4.89
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.72 / 3.74 / 4.80
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 9 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.754.065.52
Pinnacle sharp 1.68 3.69 4.91
1xBet 1.68 3.74 4.64
Bet365 1.67 3.60 4.75
BetVictor 1.67 3.70 4.60
Betano 1.72 ★ 3.65 4.65
Betfair Sportsbook 1.67 3.90 ★ 4.75
Dafabet 1.71 3.70 4.60
William Hill 1.70 3.40 4.80 ★
Show all 9 bookmakers
Marathonbet 1.66 3.74 4.65

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

Starting line-ups

Millonarios 4-4-2

  1. 1 J. Burrai GK
  2. 3 M. Diaz Samuel DF
  3. 4 S. Barreiro DF
  4. 6 S. Mosquera DF
  5. 22 Sebastián Valencia Isaza DF
  6. 7 J. Cuadrado MF
  7. 55 Leonai MF
  8. 18 R. Ureña MF
  9. 14 D. Silva MF
  10. 10 D. Ruiz FW
  11. 23 L. Castro FW

Bench: J. Aguirre, J. Angulo, D. Banguero, A. Estupiñán, A. Llinás, D. Quintero, Yeiner Matias Romero Pino, S. Vega, S. del Castillo

Coach: A. Gamero

Regular starters not in the XI

  • F. Chaverra — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)

Once Caldas 4-1-4-1

  1. 99 J. Parra GK
  2. 22 J. Cuesta DF
  3. 16 J. Castaño DF
  4. 30 D. Londoño DF
  5. 33 J. Patiño DF
  6. 5 J. Nieto MF
  7. 7 M. Barrios MF
  8. 23 A. Colorado MF
  9. 20 A. Roa MF
  10. 9 Pipe Gómez MF
  11. 14 J. Zapata FW

Bench: J. Riquett, J. Quiñónes, E. Navarro, D. Moreno, H. Guzman, T. García, J. Camargo, J. Alvarado, E. Torres

Coach: H. Herrera

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 57 / 25 / 18% when the line-ups came out, 57 / 25 / 18% now. The price barely moved after the line-ups.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 76% fair 1.32 best 1.29 · Betano 24% fair 4.17 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 51% fair 1.98 best 1.88 · Betano 49% fair 2.02 best 1.95 · Bet365
3.5 28% fair 3.55 best 3.25 · Bet365 72% fair 1.39 best 1.34 · Betano
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
1.5 76% fair 1.32 best 1.29 · Betano 24% fair 4.17 best 3.80 · Betfair Sportsbook
2 1.48 fair best 1.45 · Betano 3.09 fair best 2.72 · Betano
2.25 1.73 fair best 1.64 · 1xBet 2.36 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet
2.5 51% fair 1.98 best 1.88 · Betano 49% fair 2.02 best 1.95 · Bet365
2.75 2.26 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet 1.79 fair best 1.69 · 1xBet
3 2.76 fair best 2.52 · Betano 1.57 fair best 1.50 · Betano
3.5 28% fair 3.55 best 3.25 · Bet365 72% fair 1.39 best 1.34 · Betano
4.5 12% fair 8.13 best 7.00 · BetVictor 88% fair 1.14 best 1.13 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
82% fair 1.22 best 1.21 · Betano 75% fair 1.33 best 1.29 · William Hill 43% fair 2.34 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line MillonariosOnce Caldas
−1.25 2.81 fair best 2.55 · BetVictor 1.55 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−1 2.40 fair best 2.27 · Betano 1.72 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.75 1.99 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 2.01 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
−0.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.70 · Bet365 43% fair 2.31 best 2.10 · Bet365
−0.25 1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365 2.88 fair best 2.60 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line MillonariosOnce Caldas
−1.75 4.18 fair best 3.55 · Bet365 1.31 fair best 1.27 · Bet365
−1.5 31% fair 3.24 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook 69% fair 1.45 best 1.40 · Bet365
−1.25 2.81 fair best 2.55 · BetVictor 1.55 fair best 1.50 · Bet365
−1 2.40 fair best 2.27 · Betano 1.72 fair best 1.62 · Bet365
−0.75 1.99 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 2.01 fair best 1.90 · Bet365
−0.5 57% fair 1.76 best 1.70 · Bet365 43% fair 2.31 best 2.10 · Bet365
−0.25 1.53 fair best 1.48 · Bet365 2.88 fair best 2.60 · Bet365
0 1.30 fair best 1.27 · Bet365 4.30 fair best 3.55 · Bet365
+0.25 1.25 fair best 1.23 · Bet365 5.06 fair best 4.10 · Bet365

Goals by team

Millonarios goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 53% fair 1.89 best 1.80 · Bet365 47% fair 2.13 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
1.5 53% fair 1.89 best 1.80 · Bet365 47% fair 2.13 best 2.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5 24% fair 4.19 best 3.60 · BetVictor 76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Marathonbet

Once Caldas goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · Betano 39% fair 2.59 best 2.38 · Bet365
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 61% fair 1.63 best 1.55 · Betano 39% fair 2.59 best 2.38 · Bet365
1.5 22% fair 4.53 best 3.75 · Bet365 78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Betano

First half
Line OverUnder
1 1.90 fair best 1.88 · Betano 2.11 fair best 1.95 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 51% fair 1.97 best 2.10 · Bet365 49% fair 2.03 best 1.86 · 1xBet
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
9 1.86 fair best 1.88 · Bet365 2.16 fair best 2.12 · 1xBet
9.5 51% fair 1.97 best 2.10 · Bet365 49% fair 2.03 best 1.86 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line MillonariosOnce Caldas
−1.5 52% fair 1.91 best 1.77 · Marathonbet 48% fair 2.10 best 1.95 · Betano

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 1–111.7%fair 8.52
  2. 1–011.3%fair 8.88
  3. 2–010.8%fair 9.29
  4. 2–19.8%fair 10.21
  5. 0–07.5%fair 13.30
  6. 3–06.4%fair 15.59

Total goals

  • 08%
  • 117%
  • 225%
  • 322%
  • 4+29%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Millonarios at home, Once Caldas away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesMillonariosOnce Caldas
Goals scored per game 1.70 (1.40) 1.00 (1.30)
Goals conceded per game 1.10 (0.50) 1.10 (1.30)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (30%) 30% (40%)
Both teams scored 80% (30%) 50% (70%)
Clean sheets 20% (60%) 30% (10%)
Failed to score 10% (30%) 20% (20%)
xG for / against per game 1.65 / 1.07 0.64 / 0.81
Corners for / against per game 5.00 / 3.80 4.80 / 2.70
Cards per game 3.00 2.40

Over 2.5 goals: Millonarios in 50% and Once Caldas in 30% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 51% for this match.

From 10 matches for Millonarios and 10 for Once Caldas. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–0 (Millonarios wins – draws – Once Caldas wins).

Millonarios scored 2.2 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Once Caldas scored 1 and conceded 1 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Millonarios is unbeaten in its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Millonarios here.
Once Caldas has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Once Caldas here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Millonarios
W D D D W
avg 2.2 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Once Caldas
W W D L L
avg 1 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
21 Mar 2026 Once Caldas 1–4 Millonarios

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.70
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 7febb8298d66768b

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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