Belarus 4–0 San Marino
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
No sharp market price was available for this match. Our own model made Belarus the most likely outcome at 69%; we made no value call without a sharp benchmark. Recent form — Belarus: DLDWW; San Marino: LLLLD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Belarus | San Marino |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 60 | 40 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| Shots | 15 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 4 |
| Corners | 6 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 5 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 16 | 20 |
| Offsides | 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 1 |
| Pass accuracy % | 84 | 72 |
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Belarus 4-4-2
- P. Pavlyuchenko GK
- R. Begunov DF
- Z. Volkov DF
- K. Gomanov DF
- K. Pechenin DF
- A. Kontsevoy MF
- M. Ebong MF
- E. Yablonskiy MF
- V. Gromyko MF
- T. Melnichenko FW
- T. Simanenka FW
San Marino 4-4-2
- E. Colombo GK
- G. Benvenuti DF
- M. Cevoli DF
- M. Pasolini DF
- S. Giocondi DF
- S. Zannoni MF
- L. Capicchioni MF
- A. Golinucci MF
- L. Lazzari MF
- N. Giacopetti FW
- N. Nanni FW
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|
Other estimates
| Our model | 69% | 14% | 16% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Synthetic fair odds lower confidence
No sharp benchmark prices this match yet, so these fair odds are synthesized from the consensus of recreational bookmakers, each individually de-margined. This is a weaker anchor than our usual sharp benchmark: we display it for orientation, but we flag no value and record no bets from it.
Match context
Belarus averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; San Marino averaged 0.4 and 2.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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