Wales 0–1 Denmark
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Denmark was the most likely outcome at 54% (fair odds 1.87). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Wales: WLLLD; Denmark: LWLWD.
After the whistle
Match stats
| Match stats | Wales | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 56 | 44 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.37 | 2.20 |
| Shots | 6 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 1 | 4 |
| Corners | 3 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 9 |
| Offsides | 0 | 3 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 1 |
| Pass accuracy % | 85 | 85 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Wales win 26% did not happen
- Draw 28% did not happen
- Denmark win 46% happened
- Both teams score 54% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Wales 4-2-3-1
- D. Ward GK
- N. Williams DF
- B. Cabango DF
- B. Davies DF
- J. Dasilva DF
- J. James MF
- E. Ampadu MF
- B. Johnson MF
- L. Cullen MF
- S. Thomas MF
- L. Koumas FW
Denmark 4-3-3
- M. Hermansen GK
- R. Kristensen DF
- J. Andersen DF
- O. Provstgaard DF
- J. Mæhle DF
- Victor Mow Froholdt MF
- M. Hjulmand MF
- P. Højbjerg MF
- G. Isaksen FW
- R. Højlund FW
- M. Daramy FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 25 / 27 / 48% when the line-ups came out, 26 / 28 / 46% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's two most likely results
No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 37% | 24% | 38% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Wales averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Denmark averaged 1.6 and 1.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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