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Ykkösliiga

Haka 3–0 PK-35

Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results

In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Haka was the most likely outcome at 43% (fair odds 2.31). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Haka: LWDLL; PK-35: DLWDW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 50' J. Pikkuhookana · yellow card · PK-35
  2. 77' 1–0 V. Purosalo · goal · assist K. Nurmi · Haka
  3. 82' J. Tapani · yellow card · PK-35
  4. 83' 2–0 E. Auvinen · goal · assist O. Whyte · Haka
  5. 87' 3–0 M. Mahlamaki · goal · Haka

What the market said before kick-off

  • Haka win 47% happened
  • Draw 24% did not happen
  • PK-35 win 29% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 55% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: P. Simani · Venue: Valkeakoski

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Haka

  1. 12 A. Lepola
  2. 3 N. Friberg
  3. 4 E. Auvinen
  4. 7 T. Lahdensuo
  5. 8 J. Karlsson
  6. 10 A. Maenpaa
  7. 13 M. Mahlamaki
  8. 18 E. Mattila
  9. 20 M. Cisse
  10. 25 D. Enqvist
  11. 77 O. Whyte

Bench: J. Ziprus, T. Ali Abubakar, M. Syrjalainen, K. Nurmi, T. Lehtinen, N. Sichinava, V. Purosalo

Coach: Tommi Ekmark

PK-35

  1. 1 A. Ramula
  2. 2 R. Sipi
  3. 3 A. Forsstrom
  4. 6 J. Nakanishi
  5. 7 P. Diniz
  6. 14 E. Kawakita
  7. 18 E. Pitkala
  8. 21 K. Rasanen
  9. 27 A. Ahmed-Nur
  10. 34 T. Andberg
  11. 88 J. Pikkuhookana

Bench: A. Kivela, A. Abdi, J. Costa, I. Sadik, O. Salmensuu, J. Tapani, M. Tolonen, L. Lokake, N. Ndaziramiye

Coach: Tiago Santos

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check before kick-off

No value

No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.

The market's two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 75% · as recorded

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded43%25%32%
Other estimates
Our model28%27%45%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.34
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.20 / 3.66 / 2.95
Result in our track record Won · 1

Match context

Haka averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; PK-35 averaged 1.4 and 0.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Haka
L W D L L
avg 1.4 scored · 1.8 conceded (last 5)
PK-35
D L W D W
avg 1.4 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
31 Jul 2026 PK-35 1–4 Haka
11 Apr 2026 PK-35 0–0 Haka

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.26
Prediction CLV -0.3%
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 5bf2aa79d5addba4

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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