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Ykkösliiga

JäPS 0–4 JIPPO

Final score · Half-time 0–2 · Latest results

In the sharp price we recorded for this match, JIPPO was the most likely outcome at 54% (fair odds 1.84). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — JäPS: LWLWD; JIPPO: DLWLW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 23' 0–1 — (own goal) · JIPPO
  2. 28' H. Kuosa · yellow card · JäPS
  3. 42' 0–2 Y. Kikuchi (pen.) · JIPPO
  4. 46' 0–3 E. Honkola · goal · assist M. Turunen · JIPPO
  5. 65' 0–4 Y. Kikuchi · goal · assist M. Turunen · JIPPO
  6. 85' Victor de Paula · yellow card · JIPPO

What the market said before kick-off

  • JäPS win 23% did not happen
  • Draw 25% did not happen
  • JIPPO win 51% happened
  • Over 2.5 goals 51% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: H. Vidoy

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

JäPS

  1. 3 P. Haikonen
  2. 4 J. Nikki
  3. 9 A. Ristola
  4. 14 R. Selander
  5. 17 V. Ketonen
  6. 18 J. Virtanen
  7. 19 H. Kuosa
  8. 20 H. Olander
  9. 21 C. Katashira
  10. 36 T. Valtonen
  11. 41 J. Salo

Bench: N. Voutilainen, A. Sainio, G. Taskos, I. Soderlund, J. Aalto

Coach: Teemu Kankkunen

JIPPO

  1. 1 P. Piirainen
  2. 4 Victor de Paula
  3. 9 M. Turunen
  4. 12 J. Lehtiranta
  5. 15 L. Sahimaa
  6. 16 P. Forsman
  7. 18 E. Kinnunen
  8. 21 N. Tykkylainen
  9. 24 N. Haataja
  10. 28 E. Honkola
  11. 41 Y. Kikuchi

Bench: V. Vesiaho, T. Smith, O. Keturi, J. Kiuru, L. Rasanen, L. Forss, V. Vainikainen, A. Tarvonen, K. Mahugo

Coach: Mikko Hallikainen

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check before kick-off

No value

No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.

The market's two most likely results

X/2 Draw or away 79% · as recorded

No single result was 55% likely or more when we logged the match, so this line adds up the two most likely outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded21%25%54%
Other estimates
Our model34%30%36%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds (as recorded) 1.26
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 4.32 / 3.65 / 1.77
Result in our track record Won · 2

Match context

JäPS averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; JIPPO averaged 1.0 and 0.8 over 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

JäPS
L W L W D
avg 1 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
JIPPO
D L W L W
avg 1 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
30 Jul 2026 JIPPO 1–0 JäPS
06 Apr 2026 JIPPO 0–0 JäPS

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Proof & methodology

The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick X/2 · Draw or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.19
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.24
Prediction CLV -4.1%
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint ef96d36573e9521c

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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