Montpellier 2–0 Grenoble
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Montpellier the most likely outcome at 60% — fair odds of 1.67. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Montpellier: DWLDW; Grenoble: DWLWL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 4' Yohann Magnin · yellow card · Grenoble
- 33' Nicolas Pays · goal · Montpellier
- 43' Julien Laporte · yellow card · Montpellier
- 65' Nordan Mukiele · yellow card · Montpellier
- 72' Alpha Sissoko · yellow card · Montpellier
- 85' farouq limouri · yellow card · Grenoble
- 87' Mael Corboz · yellow card · Grenoble
- 87' Baptiste Mouazan · yellow card · Grenoble
- 90+1' Mamadou Camara · goal · assist Daryll Benlahlou · Montpellier
Match stats
| Match stats | Montpellier | Grenoble |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 57 | 43 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 19 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 5 |
| Corners | 7 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 19 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Montpellier win 61% happened
- Draw 25% did not happen
- Grenoble win 13% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 49% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
- S. Ngapandouetnbu GK
- A. Sissoko DF
- J. Laporte DF
- D. Meddah DF
- T. Sainte-Luce DF
- N. Vidal-Cartoux MF
- F. Tardieu MF
- N. Pays MF
- T. Chennahi MF
- N. Mukiele MF
- M. Camara FW
Grenoble 4-1-4-1
- A. Olliero GK
- N. Zahui DF
- A. Pelon DF
- C. Vidal DF
- M. Xantippe DF
- Y. Magnin MF
- Y. Maçon MF
- S. Diba MF
- M. Corboz MF
- B. Mouazan MF
- U. Bonnet FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 63 / 23 / 15% when the line-ups came out, 61 / 25 / 13% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 24% | 16% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 27% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–0 (Montpellier wins – draws – Grenoble wins).
Montpellier scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Grenoble scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included