Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 Verl
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Fortuna Düsseldorf the most likely outcome at 55% — fair odds of 1.81. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Fortuna Düsseldorf: LWWDW; Verl: WDWWL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 24' Andreas Müller · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 37' nick seidel · yellow card · Verl
- 38' Tim Christopher Oberdorf · goal · assist Philipp Förster · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 45' Tim Heike · goal · assist Almin mesanovic · Verl
- 46' Jorrit Hendrix · goal · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 55' Janne Berner · goal · assist Mika Clausen · Verl
- 59' Erik Wekesser · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 78' Elias Arden · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
- 84' Tim Christopher Oberdorf · yellow card · Fortuna Düsseldorf
Match stats
| Match stats | Fortuna Düsseldorf | Verl |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 38 | 62 |
| Shots | 15 | 9 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 5 |
| Corners | 3 | 9 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Fortuna Düsseldorf win 52% did not happen
- Draw 24% happened
- Verl win 24% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 60% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Fortuna Düsseldorf 4-3-1-2
- L. Lord GK
- S. van der Sloot DF
- T. Oberdorf DF
- L. Bornschein DF
- E. Wekesser DF
- E. Arden MF
- A. Müller MF
- J. Hendrix MF
- P. Förster MF
- A. Slimani FW
- F. Schleusener FW
Verl 4-2-3-1
- T. Schlieck GK
- Janne Berner DF
- N. König DF
- Nick Seidel DF
- N. Kijewski DF
- A. Mešanović MF
- D. Waidner MF
- J. Eze MF
- M. Clausen MF
- A. Leipold MF
- T. Heike FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 51 / 24 / 25% when the line-ups came out, 52 / 24 / 24% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 55% | 22% | 22% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Fortuna Düsseldorf scored 1 and conceded 0.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Verl scored 1.4 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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