Hradec Králové 2–4 Artis
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Hradec Králové the most likely outcome at 66% — fair odds of 1.51. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Hradec Králové: LWDWL; Artis: DLLWL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 12' V. Darida (pen.) · Hradec Králové
- 33' A. Alegue · goal · assist N. Glossoa · Artis
- 52' D. Plechaty · yellow card · Artis
- 56' E. H. Ndiaye · goal · assist N. Glossoa · Artis
- 60' J. Kucera · red card · Hradec Králové
- 75' N. Glossoa · goal · assist A. Alegue · Artis
- 76' F. Cihak · goal · assist V. Darida · Hradec Králové
- 82' S. Harazim · yellow card · Artis
- 84' R. Abajas · yellow card · Hradec Králové
- 87' I. Fomba · yellow card · Artis
- 88' S. Harazim · goal · assist I. Fomba · Artis
Match stats
| Match stats | Hradec Králové | Artis |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 50 | 50 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.76 | 1.33 |
| Shots | 11 | 19 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 9 |
| Corners | 4 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 5 | 16 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 2 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82 | 83 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Hradec Králové win 59% did not happen
- Draw 23% did not happen
- Artis win 19% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 56% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Hradec Králové 3-4-3
- 12 A. Zadrazil GK
- 7 J. Uhrincat DF
- 5 F. Cihak DF
- 25 F. Cech DF
- 28 J. Kucera MF
- 16 V. Darida MF
- 11 S. Dancak MF
- 27 D. Trubac MF
- 19 T. Sloncik FW
- 17 O. Mihalik FW
- 70 T. Cvancara FW
Bench: P. Vizek, M. Vagner, T. Petrasek, D. Ludvicek, F. Mielke, R. Abajas, J. Chvatal, M. Valenta, S. Ponikelsky, A. Vlkanova, A. Umar
Coach: David Horejs
Regular starters not in the XI
- M. van Buren — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Artis 4-2-3-1
- 29 R. Kasik GK
- 33 N. Glossoa DF
- 4 D. Plechaty DF
- 34 K. Pojezny DF
- 15 E. Fully DF
- 36 S. Bohac MF
- 9 A. Labik MF
- 7 A. Alegue MF
- 6 Q. Adediran MF
- 90 Y. Sanyang MF
- 12 E. H. Ndiaye
Bench: J. Borek, M. Jerabek, S. Harazim, D. Preisler, M. Pospisil, A. Carlen, D. Sarapata, A. Petrak, S. Komljenovic, I. Fomba, V. Perisic
Coach: Roman Nadvornik
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 66% | 20% | 14% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Hradec Králové scored 0.8 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Artis scored 0.6 and conceded 2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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