NK Slaven Belupo 4–1 HNK Rijeka
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes HNK Rijeka the most likely outcome at 59% — fair odds of 1.69. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — NK Slaven Belupo: DLWLW; HNK Rijeka: WDWDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 7' Tiago Dantas (pen.) · HNK Rijeka
- 35' Jon Mersinaj · goal · assist lovro banovec · NK Slaven Belupo
- 43' Itsuki Urata · yellow card · NK Slaven Belupo
- 52' lovro banovec · goal · assist Marko Dabro · NK Slaven Belupo
- 68' Ilija Nestorovski · goal · assist Josip Mitrović · NK Slaven Belupo
- 74' Ilija Nestorovski · goal · NK Slaven Belupo
Match stats
| Match stats | NK Slaven Belupo | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 41 | 59 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 | 2.14 |
| Shots | 13 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 5 |
| Corners | 3 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 12 | 11 |
| Offsides | 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 4 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- NK Slaven Belupo win 16% happened
- Draw 23% did not happen
- HNK Rijeka win 61% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 53% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
- I. Čović GK
- F. Krušelj DF
- T. Božić DF
- J. Mersinaj DF
- I. Urata DF
- A. Adeshina MF
- F. Mažar MF
- J. Mitrović MF
- M. Dabro MF
- L. Banovec MF
- I. Nestorovski FW
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
- I. Vekič GK
- A. Oreč DF
- A. Majstorović DF
- A. Husic DF
- J. Lasickas DF
- I. Ćubelić MF
- A. Barco MF
- S. Vignato MF
- Tiago Dantas MF
- N. Janković MF
- D. Adu-Adjei FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Toni Fruk — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 16 / 23 / 61% when the line-ups came out, 16 / 23 / 61% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 18% | 23% | 59% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 24% | 26% | 50% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–2–3 (NK Slaven Belupo wins – draws – HNK Rijeka wins).
NK Slaven Belupo scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; HNK Rijeka scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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