Genk 3–0 Kortrijk
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Genk the most likely outcome at 67% — fair odds of 1.50. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Genk: LDDWD; Kortrijk: WLLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 3' D. Heymans · goal · Genk
- 13' H. Murray-Campbell (own goal) · Genk
- 15' Shandre Campbell · yellow card · Kortrijk
- 24' Matthew Anderson · yellow card · Kortrijk
- 49' Shandre Campbell · yellow card · Kortrijk
- 49' Shandre Campbell · red card · Kortrijk
- 63' R. Durosinmi · goal · assist D. Heymans · Genk
- 69' Joris Kayembe · yellow card · Genk
Match stats
| Match stats | Genk | Kortrijk |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 63 | 37 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.78 | 0.65 |
| Shots | 13 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 1 |
| Corners | 6 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 10 | 10 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 4 |
| Pass accuracy % | 89 | 81 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Genk win 70% happened
- Draw 18% did not happen
- Kortrijk win 12% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 66% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Genk 4-3-3
- 28 L. Brughmans GK
- 20 K. Amaro DF
- 6 M. Smets DF
- 44 J. Kongolo DF
- 18 J. Kayembe DF
- 4 B. Tahirovic MF
- 38 D. Heymans MF
- 8 B. Heynen MF
- 10 J. Ito FW
- 17 R. Durosinmi FW
- 32 N. Adedeji-Sternberg FW
Bench: T. Leysen, C. Ravych, M. Roganovic, A. De Wannemacker, I. Bangoura, J. Erenbjerg, A. Bibout, A. Yokoyama, J. Afriyie
Coach: Jess Thorup
Kortrijk 4-3-3
- 1 P. Gunnarsson GK
- 36 R. Kohon DF
- 21 A. Drouhin DF
- 4 H. Murray-Campbell DF
- 3 M. Anderson DF
- 19 B. Dejaegere MF
- 35 B. Lambert MF
- 70 A. Phillips MF
- 11 S. Campbell FW
- 10 G. Koyalipou FW
- 68 T. Ambrose FW
Bench: E. De Vlaeminck, G. Ruyssen, J. Ndjeungoue, M. Fofana, K. Masui, L. De Smet, J. van Landschoot, S. Podgoreanu, S. Ogbuehi
Coach: Daniel Beichler
Regular starters not in the XI
- M. Ilić — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- G. Ruyssen — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 68% | 21% | 11% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–0–1 (Genk wins – draws – Kortrijk wins).
Genk scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Kortrijk scored 0.4 and conceded 1.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included