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Primera Nacional

San Telmo vs Defensores De Belgrano

The sharp market makes Draw the most likely outcome at 42% — fair odds of 2.37. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — San Telmo: LWWLW; Defensores De Belgrano: LDLWW.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

A gap of +11% on X was seen on a price that has not been re-read in the last 90 minutes, so we do not flag it: it may no longer be on offer. Price last seen

Betting on the draw anyway? The best price we see is 2.63 at BetVictor, +11.0% against the fair odds of 2.37.

Most likely result

X/2 Draw or away 68%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp now29%42%29%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded32%36%32%
Our model41%31%29%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.46
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.96 / 2.61 / 2.91
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 3.30 / 2.63 / 3.30
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 10 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 3.492.373.44
Pinnacle sharp 3.07 2.17 3.03
1xBet 3.20 2.14 2.96
Bet365 3.30 2.10 3.00
BetVictor 3.00 2.63 ★ 2.75
Betano 3.30 1.95 3.30 ★
Betfair Sportsbook 3.40 ★ 2.10 2.90
Dafabet 3.25 2.30 3.05
William Hill 3.00 2.50 2.75
Show all 10 bookmakers
Marathonbet 3.20 2.14 2.96
SBO 2.91 2.30 2.69

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 5 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
1.5 54% fair 1.84 best 1.90 · Betfair Sportsbook 46% fair 2.19 best 2.05 · Betano
1.75 2.17 fair best 2.05 · BetVictor 1.85 fair best 1.75 · SBO
2.5 24% fair 4.19 best 4.00 · Bet365 76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
0.5 81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Bet365 19% fair 5.13 best 4.80 · BetVictor
1 1.37 fair best 1.32 · 1xBet 3.68 fair best 3.05 · BetVictor
1.25 1.60 fair best 1.56 · BetVictor 2.67 fair best 2.27 · 1xBet
1.5 54% fair 1.84 best 1.90 · Betfair Sportsbook 46% fair 2.19 best 2.05 · Betano
1.75 2.17 fair best 2.05 · BetVictor 1.85 fair best 1.75 · SBO
2 2.90 fair best 2.56 · BetVictor 1.53 fair best 1.43 · BetVictor
2.25 3.54 fair best 2.88 · 1xBet 1.39 fair best 1.40 · BetVictor
2.5 24% fair 4.19 best 4.00 · Bet365 76% fair 1.31 best 1.29 · Betfair Sportsbook

Double chance
1X12X2
71% fair 1.41 best 1.40 · William Hill 58% fair 1.73 best 1.65 · Betano 71% fair 1.40 best 1.36 · William Hill

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line San TelmoDefensores De Belgrano
−0.5 26% fair 3.82 best 3.45 · Bet365 74% fair 1.36 best 1.34 · BetVictor
−0.25 2.88 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 1.53 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor
0 2.02 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.98 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
+0.25 1.54 fair best 1.64 · SBO 2.84 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
+0.5 73% fair 1.37 best 1.40 · BetVictor 27% fair 3.73 best 3.00 · Bet365
All lines (9)
Line San TelmoDefensores De Belgrano
−1 9.71 fair best 7.00 · Bet365 1.11 fair best 1.10 · Bet365
−0.75 5.43 fair best 4.40 · Bet365 1.23 fair best 1.20 · Bet365
−0.5 26% fair 3.82 best 3.45 · Bet365 74% fair 1.36 best 1.34 · BetVictor
−0.25 2.88 fair best 2.68 · Bet365 1.53 fair best 1.48 · BetVictor
0 2.02 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.98 fair best 1.80 · Bet365
+0.25 1.54 fair best 1.64 · SBO 2.84 fair best 2.42 · Bet365
+0.5 73% fair 1.37 best 1.40 · BetVictor 27% fair 3.73 best 3.00 · Bet365
+0.75 1.23 fair best 1.24 · Bet365 5.38 fair best 3.90 · Bet365
+1 1.13 fair best 1.12 · Bet365 8.96 fair best 6.40 · Bet365

Goals by team

San Telmo goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.67 best 1.67 · Bet365 40% fair 2.48 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.67 best 1.67 · Bet365 40% fair 2.48 best 2.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5 19% fair 5.27 best 4.50 · Bet365 81% fair 1.23 best 1.18 · 1xBet

Defensores De Belgrano goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.66 best 1.64 · 1xBet 40% fair 2.51 best 2.25 · BetVictor
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
0.5 60% fair 1.66 best 1.64 · 1xBet 40% fair 2.51 best 2.25 · BetVictor
1.5 19% fair 5.15 best 4.50 · Betfair Sportsbook 81% fair 1.24 best 1.22 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1X2
22% fair 4.47 best 4.60 · 1xBet 55% fair 1.82 best 1.75 · William Hill 23% fair 4.42 best 4.30 · 1xBet

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.93 · 1xBet 46% fair 2.18 best 2.05 · William Hill
All lines (4)
Line OverUnder
0.5 54% fair 1.85 best 1.93 · 1xBet 46% fair 2.18 best 2.05 · William Hill
0.75 2.34 fair best 2.34 · 1xBet 1.75 fair best 1.58 · BetVictor
1 3.97 fair best 3.38 · 1xBet 1.34 fair best 1.28 · BetVictor
1.25 4.62 fair best 4.00 · 1xBet 1.28 fair best 1.26 · BetVictor

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 0–022.5%fair 4.44
  2. 1–117.1%fair 5.85
  3. 0–111.8%fair 8.50
  4. 1–011.6%fair 8.62
  5. 0–26.6%fair 15.05
  6. 2–06.5%fair 15.35

Total goals

  • 023%
  • 123%
  • 230%
  • 315%
  • 4+9%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: San Telmo at home, Defensores De Belgrano away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesSan TelmoDefensores De Belgrano
Goals scored per game 1.00 (0.90) 0.90 (0.50)
Goals conceded per game 1.30 (0.90) 1.10 (0.90)
Over 2.5 goals 50% (30%) 40% (30%)
Both teams scored 30% (30%) 30% (30%)
Clean sheets 30% (50%) 30% (40%)
Failed to score 50% (50%) 50% (60%)

Over 2.5 goals: San Telmo in 50% and Defensores De Belgrano in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 24% for this match.

From 10 matches for San Telmo and 10 for Defensores De Belgrano. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–1 (San Telmo wins – draws – Defensores De Belgrano wins).

San Telmo scored 1.2 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Defensores De Belgrano scored 1 and conceded 1.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

San Telmo
L W W L W
avg 1.2 scored · 0.8 conceded (last 5)
Defensores De Belgrano
L D L W W
avg 1 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
30 May 2026 Defensores De Belgrano 1–0 San Telmo

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick X/2 · Draw or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.38
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint ea20b861df64229d

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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