Penarol 1–1 Progreso
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Penarol the most likely outcome at 70% — fair odds of 1.43. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Penarol: WDWWW; Progreso: LWWLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 26' nahuel lopez · goal · Progreso
- 58' Cristian Jaime · yellow card · Penarol
- 76' eduardo darias · yellow card · Penarol
- 90+2' Abel Hernández · goal · Penarol
Match stats
| Match stats | Penarol | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 61 | 39 |
| Shots | 22 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 6 |
| Corners | 4 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Penarol win 70% did not happen
- Draw 18% happened
- Progreso win 12% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Penarol 3-4-2-1
- W. Aguerre GK
- L. Ferreira DF
- G. Pezzella DF
- N. Herrera DF
- J. Cabrera FW
- E. Remedi DF
- N. Fernández MF
- Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat DF
- C. Jaime FW
- L. Umpiérrez FW
- M. Arezo FW
Progreso 4-2-3-1
- R. Bacchia GK
- E. Álvarez DF
- M. Martin FW
- M. Saravia DF
- A. Cougo DF
- A. Pinheiro MF
- R. Cristóbal MF
- F. de León FW
- N. López FW
- A. Ocampo FW
- M. Juambeltz FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 70 / 18 / 12% when the line-ups came out, 70 / 18 / 12% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Penarol wins – draws – Progreso wins).
Penarol scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Progreso scored 1.6 and conceded 1.6 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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