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Liga MX

Atlas 1–1 Guadalajara Chivas

Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely outcome at 46% — fair odds of 2.16. Coolbet offers 2.20, a market gap of +1.9% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is High. Recent form — Atlas: WDLDL; Guadalajara Chivas: LDWWD.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 26' Juan Sánchez · yellow card · Atlas
  2. 30' Richard Ledezma · yellow card · Guadalajara Chivas
  3. 41' Daniel Aguirre · yellow card · Guadalajara Chivas
  4. 52' Kevin Zenon · goal · assist Paulo Ramirez · Atlas
  5. 63' Florián Monzón · yellow card · Atlas
  6. 76' Ángel Sepúlveda · missed penalty · Guadalajara Chivas
  7. 84' Kevin Castañeda · yellow card · Guadalajara Chivas
  8. 86' Ángel Sepúlveda · goal · assist Brian Gutierrez · Guadalajara Chivas
  9. 89' Santiago Sandoval · yellow card · Guadalajara Chivas
  10. 90+8' Kevin Castañeda · red card · Guadalajara Chivas
  11. 90+9' Adonis Frías · yellow card · Atlas

Match stats

Match statsAtlasGuadalajara Chivas
Possession %4456
Expected goals (xG)1.742.12
Shots612
Shots on target35
Corners77
Yellow cards33
Red cards01
Fouls1519
Offsides22
Goalkeeper saves42

What the market said before kick-off

  • Atlas win 26% did not happen
  • Draw 27% happened
  • Guadalajara Chivas win 48% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 54% did not happen
  • Both teams score 58% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava · Venue: Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Atlas 3-4-2-1

  1. 12 C. Vargas GK
  2. 19 A. Frías DF
  3. 44 J. Purata DF
  4. 16 M. Valenzuela DF
  5. 3 J. Sánchez MF
  6. 18 E. Montiel MF
  7. 15 Paulo Ramírez MF
  8. 8 R. Mmaee MF
  9. 20 K. Zenón MF
  10. 10 Luís Esteves MF
  11. 9 F. Monzón FW

Bench: A. González, M. Capasso, G. Aguirre, S. Hernández, V. Ríos, J. Martín, A. Rocha, J. Rodríguez, A. Sánchez, É. Zaldívar

Coach: H. Crespo

Guadalajara Chivas 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 J. Rangel GK
  2. 23 D. Aguirre DF
  3. 16 L. Rey DF
  4. 3 D. Campillo DF
  5. 37 R. Ledezma MF
  6. 28 R. González MF
  7. 11 B. Gutiérrez MF
  8. 182 L. Calderon MF
  9. 25 R. Alvarado MF
  10. 17 R. Marín MF
  11. 9 Á. Sepúlveda FW

Bench: C. Hernandez, J. Hernández, J. Castillo, K. Castañeda, J. Carrillo, H. Camberos, C. Inda, Santiago Sandoval, Óscar Whalley, E. Álvarez

Coach: G. Milito

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Luis Romo — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Omar Govea — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Santiago Sandoval — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Hugo Camberos — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

2 Guadalajara Chivas @ 2.20
Bookmaker Coolbet
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.20 (Coolbet) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.16
Coolbet 2.20
Confidence: Medium
Value-bet result Lost · 2 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Guadalajara Chivas (2) was priced at 2.20 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.16 — a +1.9% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 72%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded29%28%44%
Other estimates
Our model29%26%45%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.38
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.27 / 3.42 / 2.21
Market Gap +1.9%
Confidence Medium
Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Lost · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
2 Guadalajara Chivas · soft 2.20 (Coolbet) · fair 2.16 · edge +1.9%
Opening sharp
2.21
At close
2.10 · CLV +4.9%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–2 (Atlas wins – draws – Guadalajara Chivas wins).

Atlas scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Guadalajara Chivas scored 1.8 and conceded 1 in 5.

Since opening around 2.21, the sharp market price on Guadalajara Chivas has shortened to 2.10 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Atlas
W D L D L
avg 1.6 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)
Guadalajara Chivas
L D W W D
avg 1.8 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
08 Mar 2026 Atlas 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas
26 Oct 2025 Guadalajara Chivas 4–1 Atlas

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.32
Closing odds 1.32
Prediction CLV -0.3%
Result Lost
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Guadalajara Chivas
Odds when flagged 2.20
Fair odds 2.16
Closing odds 2.10
Value CLV +4.9%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint c9975548ef7f504d

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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