New Mexico United 3–1 Monterey Bay
Final score · Half-time 2–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, New Mexico United was the most likely outcome at 60% (fair odds 1.66). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — New Mexico United: WLLDD; Monterey Bay: WLLDD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 18' 1–0 C. Dennis · goal · assist Z. Bailey · New Mexico United
- 29' 2–0 C. Dennis · goal · assist N. Reid-Stephen · New Mexico United
- 31' D. Sanchez · yellow card · New Mexico United
- 56' 3–0 G. Hurst · goal · assist N. Reid-Stephen · New Mexico United
- 58' 3–1 S. Lletget · goal · assist I. Paul · Monterey Bay
- 59' Z. Farnsworth · yellow card · Monterey Bay
- 61' S. Ritchie · yellow card · Monterey Bay
- 65' K. Keller · yellow card · New Mexico United
- 90+1' R. Nakamura · yellow card · Monterey Bay
What the market said before kick-off
- New Mexico United win 59% happened
- Draw 21% did not happen
- Monterey Bay win 20% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 63% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
New Mexico United
- 13 K. Shakes
- 2 N. Hamalainen
- 4 K. Keller
- 24 T. Blackett
- 3 C. Gloster
- 15 O. Jabang
- 19 Z. Bailey
- 21 V. Noel
- 14 C. Dennis
- 7 N. Reid-Stephen
- 10 G. Hurst
Bench: L. Archimede, J. LaCava, C. Nava, A. Pannenberg, J. Melto Quiah, J. Rennicks, C. Wilkerson
Coach: Dennis Sanchez
Monterey Bay
- 98 J. Jackson
- 22 J. Garcia
- 25 K. Egwu
- 32 Z. Farnsworth
- 3 S. Ritchie
- 4 N. Ross
- 47 Q. Elliot
- 15 F. Barajas
- 88 S. Lletget
- 11 W. Leggett
- 20 I. Paul
Bench: E. Blancas, F. Canete, Jacob Montes, N. Gordon, F. Delgado, D. Otoya, R. Nakamura
Coach: Alex Covelo
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 20% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
New Mexico United averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Monterey Bay averaged 1.2 and 1.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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