Aldosivi 1–3 Sarmiento Junin
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Aldosivi the most likely outcome at 38% — fair odds of 2.66. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Aldosivi: LWLWL; Sarmiento Junin: LDWLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 18' Junior Marabel · goal · assist Jhon Rentería · Sarmiento Junin
- 20' Lucas Castro · goal · assist Martín García · Aldosivi
- 27' Javier Esteban Sanguinetti · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 29' Nicolas Zalazar · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 29' Leonardo Sigali · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 33' Mauricio Martínez · yellow card · Sarmiento Junin
- 38' Lucas·Suarez · yellow card · Sarmiento Junin
- 45+1' Lucas Castro · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 51' Ulises Adrian Gimenez · yellow card · Sarmiento Junin
- 81' Tomás Fernández · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 83' Martín García · yellow card · Aldosivi
- 86' Julian Mavilla · goal · assist Jonathan Herrera · Sarmiento Junin
- 89' Jonathan Herrera · goal · assist Thyago Ayala · Sarmiento Junin
Match stats
| Match stats | Aldosivi | Sarmiento Junin |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 49 | 51 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 | 1.77 |
| Shots | 14 | 14 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 3 |
| Corners | 6 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 17 | 15 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Aldosivi win 39% did not happen
- Draw 31% did not happen
- Sarmiento Junin win 30% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 40% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Aldosivi 4-4-1-1
- I. Chicco GK
- R. González DF
- L. Sigali DF
- N. Zalazar DF
- B. Cufré DF
- M. García MF
- N. Linares MF
- L. Castro MF
- N. Gaitán MF
- B. Palavecino MF
- N. Cordero FW
Regular starters not in the XI
- Lucas Acosta — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Joaquin Pombo — not in the starting XI (started 5 of the last 5)
- Andrés Vombergar — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- Elías López — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
- Néstor Breitenbruch — not in the starting XI (started 4 of the last 5)
Sarmiento Junin 4-4-2
- T. Ayala GK
- U. Giménez DF
- R. Orihuela DF
- J. Insaurralde DF
- L. Suárez DF
- Jhon Rentería MF
- C. Zabala MF
- Mauricio Leonel Martínez MF
- E. Giménez MF
- J. Mavilla FW
- J. Marabel FW
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 37 / 32 / 32% when the line-ups came out, 39 / 31 / 30% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 38% | 31% | 31% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 37% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–3 (Aldosivi wins – draws – Sarmiento Junin wins).
Aldosivi scored 1.6 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Sarmiento Junin scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
Measured by TipsAudit
- Most accurate football prediction site? Ranked against the closing line
- Is Statarea accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is ProSoccer.gr accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Is FootballPredictions.net accurate? Audited against the closing line
- Independent tipster audit: verified track records
- How to check if a tipster is legit
- Can you verify a Telegram tipster? What we found reading their tips
- Are free football prediction sites accurate? We measure them in public
- Which bookmaker has the lowest margin? Live index
- Free value bet finder for football
- What is closing line value (CLV)?
- Free football predictions dataset with closing odds (CSV)
- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included