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Argentina Liga Profesional

Instituto Cordoba 2–2 Boca Juniors

Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Boca Juniors the most likely outcome at 37% — fair odds of 2.67. Unibet (SE) offers 3.55, a market gap of +9.8% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Strong value). Confidence is Low and model agreement is High. Recent form — Instituto Cordoba: WWWLW; Boca Juniors: WWDWW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 14' Fernando Alarcon · goal · Instituto Cordoba
  2. 22' Gustavo Abregú · yellow card · Instituto Cordoba
  3. 23' Enner Valencia · goal · Boca Juniors
  4. 48' Jonathan Galván · goal · assist Leonel Mosevich · Instituto Cordoba
  5. 53' Williams Alarcón · yellow card · Boca Juniors
  6. 56' Miguel Merentiel · goal · assist Lautaro Blanco · Boca Juniors
  7. 76' Malcon Braida · yellow card · Boca Juniors
  8. 79' Santiago Ascacibar · yellow card · Boca Juniors
  9. 79' Alex Luna · yellow card · Instituto Cordoba
  10. 80' Fernando Alarcon · yellow card · Instituto Cordoba
  11. 85' Matías Gallardo · yellow card · Instituto Cordoba

Match stats

Match statsInstituto CordobaBoca Juniors
Possession %3169
Expected goals (xG)0.751.74
Shots1211
Shots on target43
Corners42
Yellow cards43
Red cards00
Fouls157
Offsides01
Goalkeeper saves12

What the market said before kick-off

  • Instituto Cordoba win 29% did not happen
  • Draw 32% happened
  • Boca Juniors win 39% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 36% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer · Venue: Estadio Presidente Peron, Avellaneda

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Instituto Cordoba 3-4-2-1

  1. 29 M. Ledesma GK
  2. 30 J. Galván DF
  3. 26 L. Mosevich DF
  4. 6 F. Alarcón DF
  5. 44 G. Cerato MF
  6. 55 G. Abregú MF
  7. 15 M. Gallardo MF
  8. 3 D. Sosa MF
  9. 21 J. Lázaro MF
  10. 10 A. Luna MF
  11. 17 M. Tissera FW

Bench: J. Acevedo, A. Bravo, J. Córdoba, H. De La Fuente, M. Fonseca, N. Guerra, A. Massaccesi, J. Meli, I. Méndez, L. Sanseviero, E. Sittaro, F. Suárez

Coach: Diego Flores

Boca Juniors 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Á. Montero GK
  2. 27 M. Braida DF
  3. 2 L. Di Lollo DF
  4. 26 Marco Pellegrino DF
  5. 3 L. Blanco DF
  6. 15 W. Alarcón MF
  7. 18 M. Delgado MF
  8. 19 L. Flores MF
  9. 7 C. Palacios MF
  10. 22 S. Villa MF
  11. 13 E. Valencia FW

Bench: R. Battaglia, S. Ascacíbar, L. Brey, A. Costa, N. Figal, M. Giménez, D. Gorosito, F. Herrera, M. Merentiel, L. Paredes, Á. Romero, Joaquín Ruíz

Coach: R. Arruabarrena

Regular starters not in the XI

  • L. Lozano — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • F. Herrera — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • S. Ascacíbar — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • L. Paredes — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • A. Velasco — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • M. Merentiel — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Strong value

1 Instituto Cordoba @ 3.55
Bookmaker Unibet (SE)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 3.55 (Unibet (SE)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 3.23
Unibet (SE) 3.55
Confidence: Low
Value-bet result Lost · 1 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Instituto Cordoba (1) was priced at 3.55 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 3.23 — a +9.8% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

X/2 Draw or away 69%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded31%32%37%
Other estimates
Our model32%29%39%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.45
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.07 / 3.00 / 2.56
Market Gap +9.8%
Confidence Low
Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Instituto Cordoba · soft 3.55 (Unibet (SE)) · fair 3.23 · edge +9.8%
Opening sharp
3.07
At close
3.44 · CLV +3.4%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 3 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–1 (Instituto Cordoba wins – draws – Boca Juniors wins).

Instituto Cordoba scored 2.4 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Boca Juniors scored 2 and conceded 0.4 in 5.

Since opening around 3.07, the sharp market price on Instituto Cordoba has drifted to 3.44 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Instituto Cordoba has won its last 3 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Instituto Cordoba at +9.8% above fair.
Boca Juniors has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Boca Juniors here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Instituto Cordoba
W W W L W
avg 2.4 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)
Boca Juniors
W W D W W
avg 2 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
22 Mar 2026 Boca Juniors 2–0 Instituto Cordoba
28 Jul 2024 Instituto Cordoba 0–0 Boca Juniors
19 Mar 2023 Boca Juniors 2–3 Instituto Cordoba

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick X/2 · Draw or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.38
Closing odds 1.37
Prediction CLV +0.7%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Instituto Cordoba
Odds when flagged 3.55
Fair odds 3.23
Closing odds 3.44
Value CLV +3.4%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 1643bcdbedf5ad66

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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