Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Independiente del Valle the most likely outcome at 64% — fair odds of 1.56. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Independiente del Valle: DWLWL; Aucas: LDDDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 33' Piero Andrés Guzmán Arrobo · goal · assist Ayrton Preciado · Aucas
- 34' Junior Sornoza · yellow card · Independiente del Valle
- 39' Junior Sornoza · missed penalty · Independiente del Valle
- 56' Hugo Quintana · goal · Independiente del Valle
- 65' Hugo Quintana · yellow card · Independiente del Valle
- 74' Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios · goal · Independiente del Valle
- 90+4' Alex Rodrigo Zova Cacierra · yellow card · Aucas
- 90+5' Santiago Morales · yellow card · Aucas
Match stats
| Match stats | Independiente del Valle | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 59 | 41 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.15 | 0.62 |
| Shots | 7 | 3 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 1 |
| Corners | 5 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Offsides | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Independiente del Valle win 64% happened
- Draw 21% did not happen
- Aucas win 14% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 54% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
- 1 A. Quintana GK
- 13 Daykol Alejandro Romero Padilla DF
- 14 M. Carabajal DF
- 5 R. Schunke DF
- 19 L. Loor DF
- 6 J. Alcívar MF
- 11 M. Perelló MF
- 28 H. Quintana MF
- 10 J. Sornoza MF
- 31 Emerson Ivan Pata Rodríguez MF
- 9 C. González FW
Bench: G. Cortéz, Steven Daniel Góngora Palacios, J. Méndez, Y. Ochoa, M. Peralta, E. Quintero, H. Quintero, D. Reasco, Andy René Velasco García, Juan Viacava, Y. Vásquez, R. Briones
Coach: Joaquín Papa
Aucas 5-4-1
- 13 Hamilton Emanuel Piedra Ordóñez GK
- 28 R. Quiñónez DF
- 37 A. Zova DF
- 14 S. Tapiero DF
- 2 S. Morales DF
- 31 B. Carabalí DF
- 21 P. Guzmán MF
- 6 A. Spina MF
- 18 Andrés David Mena Montenegro MF
- 10 A. Preciado MF
- 29 Luis Aldair Arroyo Cabeza FW
Bench: C. Zambrano, M. Vera, Thiago, B. Oyola, R. Monti Azpiazu, I. Chaves, M. Burdisso, A. Bolaños, J. Andrade
Coach: N. Araujo
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–1–0 (Independiente del Valle wins – draws – Aucas wins).
Independiente del Valle scored 1.6 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Aucas scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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