Dalian Kewei 2–2 Langfang Glory City
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Dalian Kewei was the most likely outcome at 69% (fair odds 1.44). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Dalian Kewei: WDWLW; Langfang Glory City: DLDWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 19' Ai Chuwei · yellow card · Dalian Kewei
- 22' Ablimit Dilshat · yellow card · Dalian Kewei
- 36' Li Da · yellow card · Langfang Glory City
- 45' 0–1 Li Yang (own goal) · Langfang Glory City
- 46' 1–1 Ge Yuxiang · goal · assist Ablimit Dilshat · Dalian Kewei
- 48' J. Zhang · yellow card · Langfang Glory City
- 62' Peyzullah Bahtiyar · yellow card · Dalian Kewei
- 62' Gao Tianyu · yellow card · Langfang Glory City
- 82' 2–1 Liu Zhizhi · goal · assist Zhang Xianbing · Dalian Kewei
- 84' A. Abdusalam · yellow card · Langfang Glory City
- 86' 2–2 Jin Minyu · goal · assist Ye Daoxin · Langfang Glory City
- 90+5' Chen Yongze · yellow card · Dalian Kewei
- 90+5' Yao Xing · yellow card · Langfang Glory City
What the market said before kick-off
- Dalian Kewei win 69% did not happen
- Draw 21% happened
- Langfang Glory City win 9% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 41% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Dalian Kewei 4-4-2
- 1 Zhang Chong GK
- 2 Zhang Zhen DF
- 5 Fu Yuncheng DF
- 35 Wang Peng DF
- 14 Li Zhen DF
- 18 Yao Xuchen MF
- 31 Bahtiyar Peyzullah MF
- 30 Yu Zeyuan MF
- 8 Ablimit Dilshat MF
- 11 Ge Yuxiang FW
- 36 Ai Chuwei FW
Bench: Liu Xiaolong, Liu Zhizhi, Zhang Xianbing, Yu Yanhao, Zhang Huajun, Chen Yongze, Zhang Dachi, Yan Xiaoyu, Huang Jianming, Li Yang, C. Lu, Liu Hongchen
Coach: Wang Xuanhong
Langfang Glory City 3-4-3
- 26 Xu Zhenyao GK
- 23 Tang Kaiqi DF
- 3 Yang Yanjun DF
- 32 Li Da DF
- 7 Gao Tianyu MF
- 22 Ye Daoxin MF
- 6 He Tongshuai MF
- 56 Yao Xing MF
- 30 Zhang Jiawei FW
- 11 Yin Jie FW
- 37 Xiang Yuheng FW
Bench: Huang Xi, Li Yadi, Huang Xu, Damlinjab, Jin Minyu, Q. Guannan, Ablikim Abdusalam, Peng Jiahao, Zhang Chao'ao, Wu Yuhang, Ying Yuxiao, Xu Yike
Coach: Xu Lei
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 69% | 22% | 9% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Dalian Kewei averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Langfang Glory City averaged 0.4 and 0.4 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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