← All value matches › Brazil Serie A
Brazil Serie A

Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo

Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Botafogo the most likely outcome at 39% — fair odds of 2.56. Coolbet offers 2.60, a market gap of +1.5% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Low and model agreement is High. Recent form — Coritiba: LLDLW; Botafogo: LLWDD.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 22' Marçal (own goal) · Coritiba
  2. 26' Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira · disallowed by VAR · Botafogo
  3. 34' Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira · goal · assist Cristian Medina · Botafogo
  4. 45' Allan · yellow card · Botafogo
  5. 45+3' Fabricio Bustos · yellow card · Coritiba
  6. 45+4' Sebastián Gómez · yellow card · Coritiba
  7. 52' Thiago Santos · yellow card · Coritiba
  8. 66' Marçal · yellow card · Botafogo
  9. 66' Tiago Coser · yellow card · Coritiba
  10. 88' Rodrigo Silva Nascimento · yellow card · Coritiba

Match stats

Match statsCoritibaBotafogo
Possession %4357
Expected goals (xG)1.160.93
Shots1318
Shots on target35
Corners87
Yellow cards52
Red cards00
Fouls1613
Offsides20
Goalkeeper saves43

What the market said before kick-off

  • Coritiba win 34% did not happen
  • Draw 28% happened
  • Botafogo win 38% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 57% did not happen
  • Both teams score 62% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Matheus Delgado Candancan · Venue: Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Coritiba 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Pedro Luccas GK
  2. 14 F. Bustos DF
  3. 55 Jacy DF
  4. 23 Tiago Cóser DF
  5. 6 Felipe Jonatan DF
  6. 21 Thiago Santos MF
  7. 19 S. Gómez MF
  8. 18 Paulo Roberto MF
  9. 10 Josué MF
  10. 7 J. Lavega MF
  11. 32 Pedro Rocha FW

Bench: Vini Paulista, Pedro Rangel, Tinga, Rodrigo Moledo, Renato Marques, N. Fonseca, B. Ocampo, Maicon, Rodrigo Rodrigues, Rodrigo Gelado, Gustavo, Breno Lopes

Coach: Fernando Seabra

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Bruno Melo — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Breno Lopes — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Botafogo 4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Gabriel Batista GK
  2. 2 Vitinho DF
  3. 5 N. Ferraresi DF
  4. 21 Marçal DF
  5. 13 Alex Telles DF
  6. 8 Danilo Santos MF
  7. 25 Allan MF
  8. 6 C. Medina MF
  9. 22 H. Ziyech MF
  10. 11 Matheus Martins MF
  11. 19 Arthur Cabral FW

Bench: K. Barria, Domingos Andrade, Danilo, Huguinho, Júnior Santos, G. Justino, Kauan Toledo, Álvaro Montoro, Paulinho, M. Ponte, Tiquinho Soares, Warleson

Coach: Tite

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Huguinho — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
  • L. Monzón — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • Álvaro Montoro — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 34 / 27 / 39% when the line-ups came out, 34 / 28 / 38% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

2 Botafogo @ 2.60
Bookmaker Coolbet
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.60 (Coolbet) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.56
Coolbet 2.60
Confidence: Low
Value-bet result Lost · 2 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Botafogo (2) was priced at 2.60 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.56 — a +1.5% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded36%27%37%
Other estimates
Our model37%26%36%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.67 / 3.53 / 2.57
Market Gap +1.5%
Confidence Low
Model agreement High

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Lost · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
2 Botafogo · soft 2.60 (Coolbet) · fair 2.56 · edge +1.5%
Opening sharp
2.57
At close
2.64 · CLV -1.4%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–2–2 (Coritiba wins – draws – Botafogo wins).

Coritiba scored 1.4 and conceded 3.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Botafogo scored 1 and conceded 1.4 in 5.

The sharp market price on Botafogo has barely moved since opening (2.57 to 2.64) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Coritiba has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Coritiba here.
Botafogo has lost its last 2 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Botafogo at +1.5% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Coritiba
L L D L W
avg 1.4 scored · 3.2 conceded (last 5)
Botafogo
L L W D D
avg 1 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
12 Apr 2026 Botafogo 2–2 Coritiba
30 Nov 2023 Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo
30 Jul 2023 Botafogo 4–1 Coritiba
17 Sep 2022 Botafogo 2–0 Coritiba
29 May 2022 Coritiba 1–0 Botafogo

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.31
Closing odds 1.34
Prediction CLV -2.6%
Result Lost
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Botafogo
Odds when flagged 2.60
Fair odds 2.56
Closing odds 2.64
Value CLV -1.4%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint f214a2cc32ef4a8a

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.