Wolves 1–3 Bolton
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Wolves the most likely outcome at 70% — fair odds of 1.43. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Wolves: LWLWD; Bolton: LWWLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 26' Mateus Mane · yellow card · Wolves
- 28' Atsuki Ito · goal · Bolton
- 45+1' Gaizka Larrazabal · yellow card · Bolton
- 50' Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · goal · assist Ladislav Krejčí · Wolves
- 72' Sam Dalby · goal · assist Gaizka Larrazabal · Bolton
- 76' Ethan Erhahon · yellow card · Bolton
- 82' Josh Sheehan · goal · Bolton
- 89' Kieran Trippier · yellow card · Wolves
- 90+3' Sean Neave · yellow card · Wolves
Match stats
| Match stats | Wolves | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.27 | 1.64 |
| Shots | 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 6 |
| Corners | 9 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 14 |
| Offsides | 6 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Wolves win 72% did not happen
- Draw 18% did not happen
- Bolton win 11% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 59% happened
- Both teams score 50% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Wolves 4-2-3-1
- 1 José Sá GK
- 2 K. Trippier DF
- 34 N. Djiga DF
- 37 L. Krejčí DF
- 3 Hugo Bueno DF
- 7 André MF
- 8 J. James MF
- 27 J. Bellegarde MF
- 28 Fer López MF
- 36 M. Mane MF
- 10 A. Armstrong FW
Bench: João Virgínia, Toti Gomes, J. Tchatchoua, R. Saïd, S. Neave, M. Munetsi, G. Konan, T. Doyle, T. Chirewa
Coach: César Peixoto
Regular starters not in the XI
- M. Munetsi — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Rodrigo Gomes — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
Bolton 4-2-3-1
- 31 G. Bazunu GK
- 22 Gaizka Larrazabal DF
- 18 E. Toal DF
- 5 L. Brunt DF
- 14 A. Famewo DF
- 8 J. Sheehan MF
- 21 E. Erhahon MF
- 16 S. Iling-Junior MF
- 17 A. Ito MF
- 11 T. Gale MF
- 9 T. Bair FW
Bench: X. Simons, Ruben Rodrigues, J. Nelson, R. Hardie, B. Davies, S. Dalby, M. Conway, J. Bonham, Max Lott
Coach: S. Schumacher
Regular starters not in the XI
- S. Dalby — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- B. Davies — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- M. Conway — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- K. Dong — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Ruben Rodrigues — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 70 / 18 / 11% when the line-ups came out, 72 / 18 / 11% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 70% | 18% | 12% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 36% | 25% | 39% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Wolves scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Bolton scored 1.6 and conceded 2.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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