England

Championship predictions

Fair, margin-free probabilities for every Championship fixture, value flags when a bookmaker is wrong, and the table — built from sharp market data, not gut feeling.

Upcoming audited matches

best bookmaker price next to the fair price (Pinnacle, margin removed)

How to read the table: colours, symbols and price times

How to read: 45% = fair chance, margin removed · 2.10 = best bookmaker price · bold % = most likely

2.35 Strong value = 3% or more above the fair odds · 2.35 Value flag = 1.5–3% · 2.35 Micro-edge = under 1.5%, monitor only · Value expired = a gap we flagged earlier that the market has since closed · Not checked yet = no fresh bookmaker or Pinnacle price to compare yet · Fair price only = reference competitions: the fair price only, no value check · ≈45% = fair price recorded earlier; no fresh Pinnacle price right now · XI = Starting line-ups confirmed · = add the match to My day (free account) · Bookmaker prices last updated between 21:33 UTC and 21:34 UTC

Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row →

Upcoming matches: the best bookmaker price and the fair price for each outcome
Time	Match	1	X	2	Value
Tue · 19:45 UTC	WatfordLincoln	39% 2.50 fair 2.57	27% 3.50 fair 3.70	34% 2.95 fair 2.94	Value expired
Tue · 19:45 UTC	PrestonSheffield Utd	28% 3.45 fair 3.61	25% 3.80 fair 4.04	48% 2.14 fair 2.10 +1.8%	Value flag
Tue · 19:45 UTC	BlackburnStoke City	36% 2.70 fair 2.76	29% 3.45 fair 3.49	35% 2.85 fair 2.85	Value expired
Tue · 19:45 UTC	DerbyNorwich	28% 3.50 fair 3.53	26% 3.80 fair 3.82	45% 2.14 fair 2.20	No value
Tue · 19:45 UTC	QPRBurnley	48% 2.06 fair 2.06	25% 3.80 fair 4.05	27% 3.75 fair 3.73	Value expired
Tue · 19:45 UTC	PortsmouthSwansea	35% 2.76 fair 2.84	29% 3.44 fair 3.45	36% 2.67 fair 2.79	Value expired
Tue · 19:45 UTC	CharltonBolton	43% 2.34 fair 2.34	26% 3.61 fair 3.80	31% 3.20 fair 3.22	No value
Tue · 20:00 UTC	West BromSouthampton	39% 2.55 fair 2.59	26% 3.70 fair 3.81	35% 2.75 fair 2.85	Value expired
Tue · 20:00 UTC	BirminghamMillwall	49% 2.02 fair 2.04	26% 3.65 fair 3.88	25% 3.85 fair 3.96	Value expired
Wed · 19:45 UTC	CardiffWest Ham	30% 3.40 fair 3.39	23% 4.20 fair 4.43	48% 2.06 fair 2.09	Value expired
Wed · 19:45 UTC	WrexhamMiddlesbrough	22% 4.45 fair 4.53	22% 4.00 fair 4.45	55% 1.83 fair 1.80 +1.5%	Value flag
Wed · 20:00 UTC	Bristol CityWolves	27% 3.55 fair 3.76	27% 3.60 fair 3.75	47% 2.20 fair 2.14 +2.8%	Value flag

Recent results — what happened next to the market's view before kick-off

Date	Match	Score	Market gave this result
31 Oct	Swansea – Blackburn	4–0	56%
31 Oct	Middlesbrough – Charlton	3–0	80%
31 Oct	Bolton – Bristol City	2–3	40%
31 Oct	Millwall – Derby	4–1	59%
31 Oct	West Ham – West Brom	1–3	22%
31 Oct	Burnley – Portsmouth	0–0	27%
31 Oct	Southampton – QPR	4–1	47%
31 Oct	Wolves – Cardiff	3–0	62%
31 Oct	Lincoln – Birmingham	1–3	43%
31 Oct	Stoke City – Preston	2–0	56%

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed: the market's chance of the result that happened. A low number means the result was a surprise, not that anyone could have known. A dash means we did not price that match, or it went to extra time.

Bookmaker margins on Championship

Across the matches we priced in Championship, the market's average 1X2 margin is 7.24%. The cheapest bookmaker we track on this league is Pinnacle at 3.53%. The margin is the fee you pay before any skill; it is the single biggest controllable cost in betting.

Pinnacle → · Bookmaker Margin Index → · Bookmaker margin (vig) and devigging →

Standings — 2026/27 season · official league table

Official table from API-Football, as of Mon, 02 Nov · 05:35 UTC. We read it again after matches finish.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	30	17	+13	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	20	13	+7	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	23	16	+7	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	19	14	+5	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	28	13	+15	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	23	13	+10	23
7	Stoke City	13	7	2	4	20	16	+4	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	33	18	+15	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	21	16	+5	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	17	15	+2	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	16	15	+1	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	23	21	+2	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	19	20	-1	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	15	17	-2	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	23	24	-1	15
16	Lincoln	13	4	3	6	14	23	-9	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	19	20	-1	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	15	19	-4	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	18	26	-8	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	11	21	-10	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	12	23	-11	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	17	25	-8	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	11	25	-14	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	10	27	-17	5

Top scorers — 2026/27 · updated 2 Nov 2026

#	Player	Team	Goals	Assists
1	W. Lankshear	Middlesbrough	13	0
2	A. Guðjohnsen	Blackburn	8	1
3	J. Bowen	West Ham	7	5
3	C. Larin	Southampton	7	0
5	Fer López	Wolves	6	3

Top scorers, assists and cards →

Team stats this season

156 matches this season: 2.92 goals per game, 61% over 2.5, 62% both teams scored. xG 2.87 per match (from 156 matches); 10.5 corners and 3.9 cards per match (from 156 matches with statistics).

Team	MP	GF	GA	Over 2.5	BTTS	Clean sheets	xG for / against	Corners	Cards
Middlesbrough	13	2.31	1.31	77%	77%	23%	2.18 / 0.98	11.2	1.1
Norwich	13	1.77	1.85	77%	69%	0%	1.49 / 1.55	8.5	2.2
Millwall	13	1.77	1.62	77%	54%	31%	1.92 / 1.31	11.5	2.2
Blackburn	13	1.46	1.54	77%	69%	23%	0.95 / 1.81	11.6	2.5
West Ham	13	2.46	1.31	69%	62%	31%	2.04 / 1.28	11.6	2.2
Birmingham	13	1.77	1.00	69%	62%	31%	1.74 / 1.36	9.6	2.1
Bolton	13	1.38	2.00	69%	62%	23%	1.34 / 2.02	11.2	1.7
Burnley	13	1.31	1.92	69%	85%	15%	1.37 / 1.54	9.1	2.0
Southampton	13	2.15	1.00	62%	77%	23%	1.78 / 1.27	10.3	1.9
Wolves	13	1.77	1.23	62%	62%	31%	1.73 / 0.94	10.7	1.9
QPR	13	1.62	1.23	62%	62%	23%	1.59 / 1.16	9.7	2.1
Stoke City	13	1.54	1.23	62%	62%	39%	1.00 / 1.46	10.2	2.2
Swansea	13	1.54	1.00	62%	39%	46%	1.59 / 1.27	8.6	1.5
Cardiff	13	1.46	1.54	62%	69%	8%	1.81 / 1.51	11.5	1.9
Lincoln	13	1.08	1.77	62%	54%	31%	1.33 / 1.50	11.0	2.6
Preston	13	0.77	2.08	62%	62%	0%	1.21 / 1.57	11.1	2.2
Sheffield Utd	13	1.31	1.15	54%	54%	39%	1.16 / 1.41	10.2	1.9
Derby	13	0.85	1.92	54%	62%	8%	1.01 / 1.88	11.1	2.3
West Brom	13	1.46	1.08	46%	69%	15%	1.42 / 1.45	11.9	1.9
Portsmouth	13	1.23	1.15	46%	54%	31%	1.22 / 1.22	10.4	1.5
Wrexham	13	1.15	1.46	46%	62%	15%	1.13 / 1.21	9.6	1.3
Bristol City	13	1.15	1.31	46%	54%	15%	1.47 / 1.33	11.2	1.4
Watford	13	0.92	1.77	46%	54%	8%	1.04 / 1.84	10.1	2.6
Charlton	13	0.77	1.54	46%	46%	31%	0.97 / 1.62	10.7	2.1

Goals per game and percentages from our results this season; xG, corners (for + against) and cards only where the league has match statistics. Sorted by over 2.5 rate. Form is context: the market prices it in.

Predicted final table 2026/27 — 5,000 season simulations from our Elo ratings

#	Team	Avg. finish	P(title)	P(relegation)
1	Southampton	2.5	43.3%	0%
2	Middlesbrough	3.3	26.2%	0%
3	Birmingham	5.3	8.7%	0%
4	West Ham	5.7	7.8%	0%
5	Swansea	6.4	4.7%	0%
6	Lincoln	7	4%	0%
7	Wolves	7.6	2.7%	0%
8	Millwall	10.1	0.6%	0.4%
9	West Brom	10.1	0.9%	0.3%
10	Stoke City	12.2	0.2%	0.9%
11	Sheffield Utd	12.4	0.2%	1.4%
12	Bolton	12.7	0.1%	1.3%
13	Cardiff	13.1	0.1%	1.7%
14	QPR	13.5	0%	2%
15	Portsmouth	13.7	0.1%	2.1%
16	Blackburn	14.5	0%	3.4%
17	Bristol City	14.9	0%	4.1%
18	Wrexham	14.9	0.1%	4.5%
19	Norwich	15.3	0%	5%
20	Charlton	18.6	0%	19.5%
21	Burnley	19.8	0%	32.5%
22	Derby	21.6	0%	64.1%
23	Watford	21.7	0%	66.6%
24	Preston	23.2	0%	90.4%

How to read this: we replay the entire remaining season thousands of times using team strength ratings built from historical results. These are probabilities, not predictions — our own research shows no model beats the betting market on a single match. Over a full season, however, the distribution of outcomes is informative. Updated weekly as real results come in.

Football predictions, answered honestly

What are the best Championship predictions?

The sharpest public forecast for Championship is the betting market with the margin removed. We publish exactly that — the fair probability and fair odds for every Championship fixture — and flag only the matches a softer bookmaker is mispricing. No tipster consistently beats the closing line, and we do not pretend to.

Do you offer Championship betting tips?

We publish an audit, not tips. For each Championship match you get the fair price and an honest value check; predictions are logged before kick-off and settled publicly, wins and losses alike, on our track record.

Measured by TipsAudit