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UEFA Champions League

Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain

Final score · Half-time 0–3 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Manchester City the most likely outcome at 42% — fair odds of 2.39. 1xBet offers 2.97, a market gap of +2.2% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Low and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Manchester City: WWWWW; Paris Saint Germain: WWWWL.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 13' Désiré Doue · goal · assist Fabián Ruiz · Paris Saint Germain
  2. 15' Ousmane Dembélé · goal · assist Désiré Doue · Paris Saint Germain
  3. 32' Vitinha · goal · assist Warren Zaire-Emery · Paris Saint Germain
  4. 53' Erling Haaland · goal · assist Iliman Ndiaye · Manchester City
  5. 61' Antoine Semenyo · yellow card · Manchester City
  6. 62' Maghnes Akliouche · goal · assist Ousmane Dembélé · Paris Saint Germain
  7. 69' Warren Zaire-Emery · yellow card · Paris Saint Germain
  8. 75' Erling Haaland · goal · assist Ayyoub Bouaddi · Manchester City
  9. 90' Ferrán Torres · missed penalty · Paris Saint Germain

Match stats

Match statsManchester CityParis Saint Germain
Possession %5446
Expected goals (xG)2.611.85
Shots2715
Shots on target910
Corners112
Yellow cards11
Red cards00
Fouls1011
Offsides20
Goalkeeper saves66

What the market said before kick-off

  • Manchester City win 50% did not happen
  • Draw 22% did not happen
  • Paris Saint Germain win 28% happened
  • Over 2.5 goals 70% happened
  • Both teams score 70% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Sven Jablonski · Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Manchester City 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 G. Donnarumma GK
  2. 45 A. Khusanov DF
  3. 3 Rúben Dias DF
  4. 6 M. Guéhi DF
  5. 24 J. Gvardiol DF
  6. 5 E. Anderson MF
  7. 17 E. Fernández MF
  8. 42 A. Semenyo MF
  9. 10 R. Cherki MF
  10. 11 J. Doku MF
  11. 9 E. Haaland FW

Bench: R. Aït-Nouri, M. Bettinelli, A. Bouaddi, P. Foden, M. Kovačić, R. Lewis, I. Ndiaye, Matheus Nunes, N. O'Reilly, G. Rulli, Vitor Nunes, Allan

Coach: E. Maresca

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Matheus Nunes — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3

  1. 39 M. Safonov GK
  2. 2 A. Hakimi DF
  3. 5 Marquinhos DF
  4. 51 W. Pacho DF
  5. 25 Nuno Mendes DF
  6. 33 W. Zaïre-Emery MF
  7. 17 Vitinha MF
  8. 8 Fabián Ruiz MF
  9. 11 M. Akliouche FW
  10. 10 O. Dembélé FW
  11. 14 D. Doué FW

Bench: L. Chevalier, L. Digne, Pedro Fernández, M. Godts, L. Hernández, K. Kvaratskhelia, Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha, João Neves, Ferran Torres, I. Zabarnyi, Beraldo

Coach: Luis Enrique

Regular starters not in the XI

  • João Neves — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 49 / 22 / 28% when the line-ups came out, 50 / 22 / 28% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

2 Paris Saint Germain @ 2.97
Bookmaker 1xBet
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.97 (1xBet) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.91
1xBet 2.97
Confidence: Low
Value-bet result Won · 2 +1.97u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Paris Saint Germain (2) was priced at 2.97 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.91 — a +2.2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 76%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded42%24%34%
Other estimates
Our model49%24%27%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.31
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.30 / 3.94 / 2.77
Market Gap +2.2%
Confidence Low
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · 2

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
2 Paris Saint Germain · soft 2.97 (1xBet) · fair 2.91 · edge +2.2%
Opening sharp
3.14
At close
3.62 · CLV -18.1%
Result
Won +1.97u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 3–0–2 (Manchester City wins – draws – Paris Saint Germain wins).

Manchester City scored 3.2 and conceded 0.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Paris Saint Germain scored 2.6 and conceded 1 in 5.

Since opening around 3.14, the sharp market price on Paris Saint Germain has drifted to 3.62 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Manchester City has won its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Manchester City here.
Paris Saint Germain has won its last 4 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Paris Saint Germain at +2.2% above fair.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Manchester City
W W W W W
avg 3.2 scored · 0.6 conceded (last 5)
Paris Saint Germain
W W W W L
avg 2.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
22 Jan 2025 Paris Saint Germain 4–2 Manchester City
24 Nov 2021 Manchester City 2–1 Paris Saint Germain
28 Sep 2021 Paris Saint Germain 2–0 Manchester City
04 May 2021 Manchester City 2–0 Paris Saint Germain
28 Apr 2021 Paris Saint Germain 1–2 Manchester City

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.26
Closing odds 1.25
Prediction CLV +0.1%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Paris Saint Germain
Odds when flagged 2.97
Fair odds 2.91
Closing odds 3.62
Value CLV -18.1%
Profit (units) +1.97
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 8b12d84a6a8f7521

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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