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Toronto FC 3–3 Orlando City SC

Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results

When the value flag on Toronto FC was recorded live, the sharp market made Toronto FC the most likely outcome at 43% (fair odds 2.30). On Toronto FC, GTbets offered 2.39, +3.7% above its fair price of 2.30 (Strong value). Recent form — Toronto FC: WLLLW; Orlando City SC: WLLWW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 26' 1–0 Lewis Morgan · goal · assist Theo Corbeanu · Toronto FC
  2. 45+1' 1–1 Martin Ojeda (pen.) · Orlando City SC
  3. 49' 2–1 Theo Corbeanu · goal · assist Dániel Sallói · Toronto FC
  4. 66' Alonso · yellow card · Toronto FC
  5. 75' Benjamin Kuscevic · yellow card · Toronto FC
  6. 76' 2–2 Antoine Griezmann · goal · assist Iago Teodoro · Orlando City SC
  7. 82' Vinicius Nogueira · yellow card · Orlando City SC
  8. 83' 2–3 Daryl Dike · goal · assist Iván Angulo · Orlando City SC
  9. 85' Robin Lucius Fraser · yellow card · Toronto FC
  10. 89' 3–3 Matheus Pereira de Souza · goal · Toronto FC
  11. 90+4' Richie Laryea · yellow card · Toronto FC

Match stats

Match statsToronto FCOrlando City SC
Possession %3763
Expected goals (xG)2.842.30
Shots1614
Shots on target74
Corners55
Fouls1712
Offsides31
Goalkeeper saves14

What the market said before kick-off

  • Toronto FC win 43% did not happen
  • Draw 24% happened
  • Orlando City SC win 33% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 72% happened
  • Both teams score 74% happened
  • Value flag before kick-off: 1 · Toronto FC @ 2.39 (GTbets) Lost

CLV +4.5% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Armando Villarreal · Venue: BMO Field, Toronto

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Toronto FC 4-4-2

  1. 1 L. Gavran GK
  2. 22 R. Laryea DF
  3. 13 B. Kuscevic DF
  4. 12 Z. Monlouis DF
  5. 3 Matheus Pereira DF
  6. 7 T. Corbeanu MF
  7. 14 Alonso Coello MF
  8. 6 N. Dorsch MF
  9. 20 D. Sallói MF
  10. 90 L. Morgan FW
  11. 9 J. Sargent FW

Bench: Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga, R. Chukwu, M. Cimermancic, D. Etienne, K. Franklin, J. Gilman, D. Mihailović, A. Piedrahita, W. Yarbrough

Coach: R. Fraser

Orlando City SC 4-4-2

  1. 71 M. Crépeau GK
  2. 77 I. Angulo DF
  3. 4 D. Brekalo DF
  4. 57 Iago DF
  5. 27 Vinícius Nogueira DF
  6. 20 E. Atuesta MF
  7. 5 Luis Otávio MF
  8. 16 W. Cartagena MF
  9. 23 Harvey Sarajian MF
  10. 7 A. Griezmann FW
  11. 10 M. Ojeda FW

Bench: N. Miller, B. Ojeda, Javier Otero, Bernardo Rhein Goncalves, Z. Taifi, Tiago, Joran Gerbet, D. Dike, Adrián Marín

Coach: M. Perelman

Regular starters not in the XI

  • R. Jansson — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • Joran Gerbet — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 41 / 25 / 34% when the line-ups came out, 43 / 24 / 33% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Strong value

1 Toronto FC @ 2.39
Bookmaker GTbets
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.39 (GTbets) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.30
GTbets 2.39
Market Gap +3.7%
Confidence Medium
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Value flag result Lost · 1 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Toronto FC (1) was priced at 2.39 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.30 — a +3.7% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Two most likely results

1/2 Home or away 76% · as recorded

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded43%24%32%
Other estimates
Our model37%25%38%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.32
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.20 / 3.80 / 2.91
Pick result (single or double chance) Lost · X

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Toronto FC · soft 2.39 (GTbets) · fair 2.30 · edge +3.7%
Opening sharp
2.20
At close
2.29 · CLV +4.5%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

Toronto FC averaged 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Orlando City SC averaged 2.6 and 2.4 over 5.

Since opening around 2.20, the sharp market price on Toronto FC has drifted to 2.29 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Orlando City SC is averaging 2.6 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Orlando City SC here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Toronto FC
W L L L W
avg 1 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)
Orlando City SC
W L L W W
avg 2.6 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)

Form: most recent match first.

Recent head-to-head
12 Sep 2026 Orlando City SC 3–0 Toronto FC
18 Oct 2025 Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SC
02 Mar 2025 Orlando City SC 4–2 Toronto FC

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.25
Pinnacle closing odds (with margin) 1.28
Prediction CLV -1.8%
Result Lost
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Toronto FC
Odds when flagged 2.39
Fair odds 2.30
Fair closing odds (Pinnacle, margin removed) 2.29
Value CLV +4.5%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 3ad87e9620350cda

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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