Lech Poznan 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen
Final score · Half-time 0–3 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Bayer Leverkusen the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.71. Unibet (NL) offers 1.72, a market gap of +0.6% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is High and model agreement is Low. Recent form — Lech Poznan: WWLLW; Bayer Leverkusen: WWWDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 29' Patrik Schick (pen.) · Bayer Leverkusen
- 32' Malik Tillman · goal · Bayer Leverkusen
- 40' Mateusz Skrzypczak · yellow card · Lech Poznan
- 41' Patrik Schick (pen.) · Bayer Leverkusen
- 68' Robert Andrich · yellow card · Bayer Leverkusen
- 80' Moussa Diaby · yellow card · Bayer Leverkusen
- 88' Ibrahim Maza · goal · assist Afonso Moreira · Bayer Leverkusen
Match stats
| Match stats | Lech Poznan | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 39 | 61 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.57 | 5.22 |
| Shots | 10 | 22 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 10 |
| Corners | 4 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 5 | 16 |
| Offsides | 1 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 7 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Lech Poznan win 14% did not happen
- Draw 18% did not happen
- Bayer Leverkusen win 68% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 69% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Lis GK
- 2 Joel Pereira DF
- 27 W. Mońka DF
- 72 M. Skrzypczak DF
- 15 M. Gurgul DF
- 5 G. Berggren MF
- 43 A. Kozubal MF
- 10 P. Wålemark MF
- 77 L. Palma MF
- 14 L. Bengtsson MF
- 9 M. Ishak FW
Bench: T. Yegbe, W. Szymczak, Pablo Rodríguez, M. Pruchniewski, F. Jagiełło, D. Håkans, K. Delikat, Y. Agnero, Piotr Bartczak
Coach: N. Frederiksen
Regular starters not in the XI
- R. Murawski — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- Pablo Rodríguez — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- A. Sayyadmanesh — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Bayer Leverkusen 4-4-2
- 1 M. Flekken GK
- 17 Lucas Vázquez DF
- 5 L. Badé DF
- 12 E. Tapsoba DF
- 3 Miguel Gutiérrez DF
- 10 M. Tillman MF
- 24 Aleix García MF
- 6 E. Fernández MF
- 23 N. Tella MF
- 11 M. Terrier FW
- 30 I. Maza FW
Bench: P. Schick, J. Quansah, Afonso Moreira, F. Medina, N. Lomb, M. Diaby, J. Blaswich, R. Andrich
Coach: Carles Martínez
Regular starters not in the XI
- F. Medina — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- M. Diaby — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Afonso Moreira — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- J. Quansah — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- P. Schick — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 14 / 19 / 67% when the line-ups came out, 14 / 18 / 68% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value opportunity before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Bayer Leverkusen (2) was priced at 1.72 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.71 — a +0.6% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 20% | 21% | 58% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 35% | 22% | 43% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
Lech Poznan scored 2.2 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Bayer Leverkusen scored 2.8 and conceded 1 in 5.
Since opening around 1.61, the sharp market price on Bayer Leverkusen has shortened to 1.47 — the market has moved towards this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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