Rudes 1–2 HNK Rijeka
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes HNK Rijeka the most likely outcome at 73% — fair odds of 1.37. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Rudes: WDLLL; HNK Rijeka: LWDWD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 5' Samuele Vignato · goal · assist Toni Fruk · HNK Rijeka
- 36' Branko pavic · yellow card · HNK Rijeka
- 45+2' Lovre Rogić · yellow card · Rudes
- 71' Vedran Celjak · red card · Rudes
- 74' Toni Fruk · goal · HNK Rijeka
- 89' Kristijan Lovrić · yellow card · Rudes
- 90+2' Niko Janković · yellow card · HNK Rijeka
- 90+4' Noa skoko · goal · assist Jurica Poldrugac · Rudes
Match stats
| Match stats | Rudes | HNK Rijeka |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 30 | 70 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.71 | 1.10 |
| Shots | 6 | 9 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 4 |
| Corners | 3 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 10 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Rudes win 11% did not happen
- Draw 18% did not happen
- HNK Rijeka win 72% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 60% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Rudes 4-2-3-1
- 95 L. Rogić GK
- 2 B. Unušić DF
- 4 V. Celjak DF
- 42 M. ZebiÄ DF
- 27 Felipe Curcio DF
- 24 I. Đorić MF
- 37 N. Skoko MF
- 29 S. Bralić MF
- 28 Xavi MF
- 88 S. El Haddad MF
- 78 J. Fernándes FW
Bench: Josip Bralic, J. Pejic, Filip Holjevac, L. Ilečić, T. Kolega, K. Lovrić, I. Žutić, M. Šlogar, F. Taraba, V. Seitz, Luka Popovic, J. Poldrugač
Coach: A. Peternac
HNK Rijeka 4-2-3-1
- 13 I. Vekič GK
- 22 A. Oreč DF
- 45 A. Majstorović DF
- 51 A. Husic DF
- 34 M. Devetak DF
- 26 Tiago Dantas MF
- 6 B. PaviÄ MF
- 23 J. Lasickas MF
- 10 T. Fruk MF
- 19 S. Vignato MF
- 21 J. Puljić FW
Bench: A. Gojak, I. Ćubelić, A. Todorović, Domagoj Ivan Maric, Y. Kabadayı, A. Jurič, N. Janković, Goran Grulović, N. Bodetić, A. Barco, D. Adu-Adjei, M. Živković
Coach: M. Kek
Regular starters not in the XI
- Daniel Adu-Adjei — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- I. Ćubelić — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 11 / 18 / 72% when the line-ups came out, 11 / 18 / 72% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 10% | 17% | 73% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 21% | 23% | 56% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 1 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–1 (Rudes wins – draws – HNK Rijeka wins).
Rudes scored 1.2 and conceded 2.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; HNK Rijeka scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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