Heerenveen 4–0 Excelsior
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Heerenveen the most likely outcome at 54% — fair odds of 1.84. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Heerenveen: LWDLD; Excelsior: LDLDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 11' Dylan Vente (pen.) · Heerenveen
- 43' Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson · yellow card · Excelsior
- 54' Oliver Johansen Braude · goal · assist Jacob Trenskow · Heerenveen
- 84' Luca Oyen · goal · assist Ringo Meerveld · Heerenveen
- 88' Jacob Trenskow · goal · Heerenveen
Match stats
| Match stats | Heerenveen | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 52 | 48 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.33 | 0.73 |
| Shots | 14 | 5 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 1 |
| Corners | 4 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 9 | 10 |
| Offsides | 3 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 1 | 3 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Heerenveen win 61% happened
- Draw 21% did not happen
- Excelsior win 18% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 68% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
- 1 B. Klaverboer GK
- 45 O. Braude DF
- 4 S. Kersten DF
- 3 M. Willemsen DF
- 19 V. Zagaritis DF
- 16 M. Linday MF
- 8 N. Courtens MF
- 20 J. Trenskow MF
- 14 L. Smans MF
- 7 M. Rivera MF
- 9 D. Vente FW
Bench: D. Bladi, Anass Bouziane, M. Farji, M. Hilgers, H. Petrov, L. Machine, R. Meerveld, M. Egbring, A. Noppert, L. Oyen, T. Schreuder, R. Uldriķis
Coach: R. Veldeman
Excelsior 4-3-3
- 1 S. van Gassel GK
- 2 Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira DF
- 4 C. Widell DF
- 14 J. Plug DF
- 15 S. Janssen DF
- 8 I. Yegoian MF
- 3 R. Meissen MF
- 20 L. Hartjes MF
- 7 A. Sliti FW
- 19 D. Garden FW
- 30 Á. Þorsteinsson FW
Bench: D. van Vianen, O. Turay, V. Sulzbacher, I. Silva Timas, N. Naujoks, A. Jahanbakhsh, N. Groen, Mario Domínguez, Giulliano Cairo, Celton Biai
Coach: R. den Uil
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 62 / 20 / 18% when the line-ups came out, 61 / 21 / 18% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 54% | 22% | 23% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–1–2 (Heerenveen wins – draws – Excelsior wins).
Heerenveen scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Excelsior scored 1.8 and conceded 2.2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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