FC Tokyo 3–0 Urawa
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, FC Tokyo was the most likely outcome at 55% (fair odds 1.82). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — FC Tokyo: LDLDW; Urawa: LDLDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 21' Marcelo · yellow card · FC Tokyo
- 63' 1–0 Motoki Nagakura · goal · FC Tokyo
- 69' 2–0 Soma Anzai · goal · assist Motoki Nagakura · FC Tokyo
- 85' 3–0 Kein Sato · goal · FC Tokyo
Match stats
| Match stats | FC Tokyo | Urawa |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 54 | 46 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.98 | 0.84 |
| Shots | 16 | 11 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 2 |
| Corners | 3 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 13 | 13 |
| Offsides | 1 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 2 |
What the market said before kick-off
- FC Tokyo win 48% happened
- Draw 25% did not happen
- Urawa win 27% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 57% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
FC Tokyo 4-4-2
- Kim Seung-Gyu GK
- H. Ishihara DF
- A. Scholz DF
- H. Inamura DF
- K. Bangnagande DF
- S. Anzai MF
- S. Nagano MF
- Kyota Tokiwa MF
- K. Tawaratsumida MF
- Marcelo Ryan FW
- M. Nagakura FW
Urawa 4-3-3
- S. Nishikawa GK
- M. Yamane DF
- Y. Miyamoto DF
- K. Nemoto DF
- K. Hayashi DF
- K. Yasui MF
- T. Seko MF
- H. Ueki MF
- T. Kaneko FW
- H. Minamino FW
- Matheus Sávio FW
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 50 / 24 / 26% when the line-ups came out, 48 / 25 / 27% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 55% | 23% | 22% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 26% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
FC Tokyo averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Urawa averaged 1.0 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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