Zorya Luhansk 2–1 Chornomorets
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Zorya Luhansk the most likely outcome at 60% — fair odds of 1.68. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Zorya Luhansk: WLDDL; Chornomorets: LDLDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 27' Maksym Boyko · goal · Zorya Luhansk
- 45+3' Christian Mba · goal · assist Vitaliy Faraseyenko · Chornomorets
- 48' Igor Perduta · yellow card · Zorya Luhansk
- 60' Dejan Popara · yellow card · Zorya Luhansk
- 74' Pylyp Budkivskyi · yellow card · Zorya Luhansk
- 88' Muhammed Jobe · yellow card · Chornomorets
- 89' Bogdan Kushnirenko · goal · assist Vladlen Yurchenko · Zorya Luhansk
- 90+2' Vasyl Kravets · yellow card · Zorya Luhansk
- 90+2' M. Jarju · yellow card · Chornomorets
Match stats
| Match stats | Zorya Luhansk | Chornomorets |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 59 | 41 |
| Shots | 18 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 1 |
| Corners | 11 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Zorya Luhansk win 65% happened
- Draw 22% did not happen
- Chornomorets win 13% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 53% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Zorya Luhansk 4-2-3-1
- 1 O. Saputin GK
- 44 I. Perduta DF
- 77 B. Kushnirenko DF
- 3 V. Kravets DF
- 39 Artem Machelyuk DF
- 8 K. Dryshlyuk MF
- 18 M. Boyko MF
- 88 S. Bah MF
- 30 I. Nesterenko MF
- 27 D. Jelavić MF
- 28 P. Budkivskyi FW
Bench: V. Rybak, G. Eskinja, Juninho, Ítalo, A. JanjiÄ, A. Glushchenko, I. Gorbach, V. Yurchenko, J. Bašić, D. Popara, l. Karavashchenko, Jordan
Coach: V. Skripnik
Chornomorets 4-4-1-1
- 12 C. Aniagboso GK
- 60 M. Melnychenko DF
- 24 M. Jarju DF
- 74 M. Farina DF
- 27 O. Pushkarev DF
- 11 K. Popov MF
- 18 G. Robakidze MF
- 30 Muhammed Jobe MF
- 13 V. Faraseenko MF
- 10 A. Avagimyan MF
- 99 C. Mba FW
Bench: M. Koval, D. Alefirenko, V. Kurko, V. Klymenko, D. Klyots, S. Yarmola, Nikita Stepovyi, Magomed Kratov, O. Gusev, A. Khoma, N. Bayda
Coach: R. Grigorchuk
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 65 / 22 / 13% when the line-ups came out, 65 / 22 / 13% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 24% | 17% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Zorya Luhansk wins – draws – Chornomorets wins).
Zorya Luhansk scored 1 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Chornomorets scored 0.6 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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