← All value matches › Segunda Division
Segunda Division

Real Sociedad II 2–4 Almeria

Final score · Half-time 0–2 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Almeria the most likely outcome at 48% — fair odds of 2.08. Coolbet offers 2.10, a market gap of +1.1% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Real Sociedad II: LLLLW; Almeria: WWWWW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 23' Brian Cipenga · goal · assist Javier Muñoz Jiménez · Almeria
  2. 34' Dani Diaz · yellow card · Real Sociedad II
  3. 37' Jorge Pulido · yellow card · Almeria
  4. 38' Miguel De La Fuente · goal · Almeria
  5. 49' Javier Soroeta · yellow card · Real Sociedad II
  6. 54' Sergio Arribas Calvo (pen.) · Almeria
  7. 58' Lander Astiazarán · goal · assist Dani Diaz · Real Sociedad II
  8. 90+5' Arkaitz Mariezkurrena · goal · Real Sociedad II
  9. 90+6' Inaki Ruperez (own goal) · Almeria

Match stats

Match statsReal Sociedad IIAlmeria
Possession %5347
Expected goals (xG)1.631.91
Shots217
Shots on target94
Corners102
Yellow cards21
Red cards00
Fouls1412
Offsides10
Goalkeeper saves17

What the market said before kick-off

  • Real Sociedad II win 24% did not happen
  • Draw 25% did not happen
  • Almeria win 51% happened
  • Over 2.5 goals 58% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Ojaos Valera, Alejandro · Venue: Estadio Ciudad Deportiva Zubieta, San Sebastian

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Real Sociedad II 4-4-2

  1. 1 Aitor Fraga GK
  2. 22 Rupérez DF
  3. 15 I. Calderon DF
  4. 5 K. Kita DF
  5. 3 Jon Balda DF
  6. 17 Lander Astiazarán MF
  7. 8 Ibai Aguirre MF
  8. 14 Tomás Carbonell MF
  9. 16 Gorka Gorosabel MF
  10. 7 Dani Díaz FW
  11. 19 Javier Soroeta FW

Bench: Andrews Adjabeng, Gorka Carrera, Jon Eceizabarrena, Jon Garro, Arkaitz Mariezkurrena, Lander Olasagasti, J. Oleaga, Sydney Osazuwa, A. Unax, Unax Agote

Coach: Ion Ansotegi

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Iker Ropero — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
  • Gorka Carrera — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Almeria 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Andrés Fernández GK
  2. 2 Marcos Luna DF
  3. 5 Jorge Pulido DF
  4. 18 F. Bonini DF
  5. 15 Leonardo Lelo DF
  6. 29 S. Džodić MF
  7. 14 Javi Muñoz MF
  8. 22 D. Chirino MF
  9. 11 Sergio Arribas MF
  10. 17 B. Cipenga MF
  11. 24 Miguel de la Fuente FW

Bench: Adri Embarba, Thalys, Quim Junyent, Á. Yaakobishvili, Álex Sola, Álex Muñoz, Jon Morcillo, Nico Melamed, Fernando Martínez, K. Kone, Chumi, Léo Baptistão

Coach: Xavier García Pimienta

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Chumi — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 24 / 25 / 51% when the line-ups came out, 24 / 25 / 51% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Micro-edge

2 Almeria @ 2.10
Bookmaker Coolbet
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.10 (Coolbet) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.08
Coolbet 2.10
Confidence: Medium
Value-bet result Won · 2 +1.10u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Almeria (2) was priced at 2.10 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.08 — a +1.1% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded28%27%46%
Other estimates
Our model20%26%53%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 3.36 / 3.46 / 2.10
Market Gap +1.1%
Confidence Medium
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · 2

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
2 Almeria · soft 2.10 (Coolbet) · fair 2.08 · edge +1.1%
Opening sharp
2.10
At close
1.94 · CLV +8.0%
Result
Won +1.10u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–3 (Real Sociedad II wins – draws – Almeria wins).

Real Sociedad II scored 1.4 and conceded 2.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Almeria scored 2 and conceded 0.2 in 5.

Since opening around 2.10, the sharp market price on Almeria has shortened to 1.94 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Real Sociedad II has lost its last 4 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Real Sociedad II here.
Almeria has won its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Almeria here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Real Sociedad II
L L L L W
avg 1.4 scored · 2.4 conceded (last 5)
Almeria
W W W W W
avg 2 scored · 0.2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
29 Mar 2026 Almeria 5–1 Real Sociedad II
29 Aug 2025 Real Sociedad II 2–2 Almeria
13 May 2022 Real Sociedad II 0–2 Almeria
21 Oct 2021 Almeria 3–1 Real Sociedad II

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.29
Closing odds 1.29
Prediction CLV +0.2%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 2 · Almeria
Odds when flagged 2.10
Fair odds 2.08
Closing odds 1.94
Value CLV +8.0%
Profit (units) +1.10
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint a92decd5d799bf28

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

Found this useful? Send it to a friend who bets.