NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica
Final score · Half-time 0–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes NK Osijek the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.71. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — NK Osijek: LDWLW; HNK Gorica: LWDLD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 23' Jakov Pranjić · goal · assist Domagoj Pavičić · HNK Gorica
- 31' Izak Ježić · yellow card · NK Osijek
- 34' Armando León · yellow card · NK Osijek
- 35' frigan juraj · yellow card · HNK Gorica
- 60' Goncalo Costa · yellow card · HNK Gorica
- 68' Armando León · goal · assist Admir ljatifi · NK Osijek
- 73' Ognjen Bakic · disallowed by VAR · HNK Gorica
- 75' Mario Carević · red card · HNK Gorica
- 90+3' Filip Braut · yellow card · HNK Gorica
Match stats
| Match stats | NK Osijek | HNK Gorica |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 59 | 41 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 | 0.58 |
| Shots | 28 | 6 |
| Shots on target | 7 | 3 |
| Corners | 11 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 13 |
| Offsides | 1 | 4 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 6 |
What the market said before kick-off
- NK Osijek win 58% did not happen
- Draw 23% happened
- HNK Gorica win 18% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 52% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
NK Osijek 4-2-3-1
- 31 M. Malenica GK
- 22 J. Kruiver DF
- 49 Ivano Kolarik DF
- 98 Izak Ježić DF
- 47 D. Kalem DF
- 23 L. Vrbancic MF
- 8 Š. Mikolčić MF
- 39 D. Bukvić MF
- 11 Luka Tunjic MF
- 21 Cantero MF
- 79 A. León FW
Bench: B. Bakti, Balelo, I. Barić, N. Curcija, I. Dolček, Niko Farkaš, M. Heister, L. Jelenić, A. Ljatifi, O. Petrusenko, L. Posavec
Coach: Fede Bessone
Regular starters not in the XI
- Marcel Heister — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Luka Jelenić — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Jona Ježić — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
HNK Gorica 4-2-3-1
- 1 R. Josipović GK
- 2 F. Braut DF
- 32 J. Filipović DF
- 15 D. Stevanović DF
- 5 Gonçalo Costa DF
- 66 Juraj Frigan MF
- 6 T. Lacoux MF
- 8 J. Pranjić MF
- 24 D. Pavičić MF
- 25 B. Bogojević MF
- 50 A. Erceg FW
Bench: K. Čustović, L. Vrzić, D. Žarkov, S. Perić, H. Moustapha, P. Mijić, D. Matijaš, B. Kardum, I. Cvijanović, O. Bakić
Coach: M. Carević
Regular starters not in the XI
- Patrik Mijić — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 58 / 23 / 18% when the line-ups came out, 58 / 23 / 18% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–2–1 (NK Osijek wins – draws – HNK Gorica wins).
NK Osijek scored 1.8 and conceded 1.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; HNK Gorica scored 0.8 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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