Cobreloa 6–1 Recoleta
Final score · Half-time 3–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Cobreloa was the most likely outcome at 56% (fair odds 1.79). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Cobreloa: LWWDL; Recoleta: LWDWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 19' F. Tomarelli · yellow card · Recoleta
- 20' 1–0 R. Gonzalez · goal · Cobreloa
- 26' 2–0 A. Delgado · goal · Cobreloa
- 45+2' 3–0 G. Gotti · goal · Cobreloa
- 49' 4–0 G. Gotti · goal · Cobreloa
- 73' 4–1 G. Estigarribia · goal · Recoleta
- 79' B. Viveros · yellow card · Recoleta
- 81' 5–1 J. Duma · goal · Cobreloa
- 85' B. Viveros · yellow card · Recoleta
- 85' B. Viveros · red card (after a yellow) · Recoleta
- 86' 6–1 G. Gotti (pen.) · Cobreloa
What the market said before kick-off
- Cobreloa win 57% happened
- Draw 24% did not happen
- Recoleta win 20% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 52% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 50% | 28% | 21% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Cobreloa averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Recoleta averaged 1.4 and 1.0 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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