Deportivo Maipu 3–1 Club Atlético Güemes
Final score · Half-time 1–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Deportivo Maipu was the most likely outcome at 82% (fair odds 1.22). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Deportivo Maipu: LDWWD; Club Atlético Güemes: WLLLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 43' G. Baier · yellow card · Club Atlético Güemes
- 45' 1–0 B. Orosco · goal · Deportivo Maipu
- 47' 2–0 J. Giacone · goal · assist B. Orosco · Deportivo Maipu
- 63' R. Silisque · yellow card · Club Atlético Güemes
- 79' 3–0 L. Cabrera (pen.) · Deportivo Maipu
- 90+1' 3–1 S. G. Sala · goal · Club Atlético Güemes
What the market said before kick-off
- Deportivo Maipu win 81% happened
- Draw 13% did not happen
- Club Atlético Güemes win 6% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 50% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
The market's most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 82% | 13% | 6% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Deportivo Maipu averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Club Atlético Güemes averaged 0.4 and 1.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Proof & methodology
The timestamped record of this prediction, and how the fair price is made.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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