America Mineiro 1–0 Operario-PR
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Operario-PR the most likely outcome at 41% — fair odds of 2.41. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — America Mineiro: LLLLL; Operario-PR: LLLDW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 19' Tobias Ostchega · yellow card · America Mineiro
- 42' Caio Dantas · yellow card · Operario-PR
- 42' Jorge Jiménez · yellow card · America Mineiro
- 57' Matías Segovia · yellow card · America Mineiro
- 60' Barreto · yellow card · America Mineiro
- 64' William Arthur Assmann · yellow card · America Mineiro
- 88' Guilherme Parede · goal · assist Barreto · America Mineiro
- 90+3' Aylon · yellow card · Operario-PR
Match stats
| Match stats | America Mineiro | Operario-PR |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 44 | 56 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 | 0.69 |
| Shots | 22 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 2 |
| Corners | 6 | 4 |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 20 | 9 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 5 |
What the market said before kick-off
- America Mineiro win 35% happened
- Draw 26% did not happen
- Operario-PR win 39% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 47% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
America Mineiro 4-2-3-1
- 91 Bruno Brígido GK
- 4 Rafael Barcelos DF
- 45 Ricardo Silva DF
- 3 L. Sosa DF
- 25 T. Ostchega DF
- 88 Barreto MF
- 93 J. Jiménez MF
- 20 Paulo Victor MF
- 77 M. Segovia MF
- 7 Guilherme Parede MF
- 9 Willian FW
Bench: William, F. Elizari, Otavio Goncalves, Cesar Leme Do Nascimento Julio, Marcelo Macola, Cássio, L. Montes, Emerson Santos, Manoel, Cristian Do Espirito Santo Rodrigues, Felipe Amaral
Coach: Moacir Júnior
Regular starters not in the XI
- Fábio Almeida — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Operario-PR 4-2-3-1
- 1 Elias Martello Curzel GK
- 2 Mikael Doka DF
- 22 J. Cuenú DF
- 43 Joseph DF
- 27 Gabriel Feliciano DF
- 8 J. Zuluaga MF
- 5 Índio MF
- 14 Hildeberto Pereira MF
- 20 Vinícius Diniz MF
- 30 Pedro Vilhena MF
- 99 Caio Dantas FW
Bench: Klaus, Brenno, Joao Gabriel, Nicolas Schulz, André, Aylon, Vagner, Moraes, Miranda, Neto Paraíba, Dudu
Coach: Alberto Valentim
Regular starters not in the XI
- Vagner — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Matheus Trindade — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 30 / 26 / 45% when the line-ups came out, 35 / 26 / 39% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 32% | 26% | 41% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–3 (America Mineiro wins – draws – Operario-PR wins).
America Mineiro scored 0 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Operario-PR scored 1 and conceded 1.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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