FBC Melgar 4–2 Deportivo Garcilaso
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes FBC Melgar the most likely outcome at 60% — fair odds of 1.66. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — FBC Melgar: DDWWL; Deportivo Garcilaso: LWLWW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 5' Facundo Castelli · yellow card · Deportivo Garcilaso
- 9' Facundo Castelli · goal · assist Pablo Labrin · Deportivo Garcilaso
- 39' Nicolas Quagliata · goal · assist Matías Lazo · FBC Melgar
- 57' Francisco Arancibia · goal · assist Pablo Labrin · Deportivo Garcilaso
- 60' Carlos Ramos · yellow card · Deportivo Garcilaso
- 62' Johnny Vidales (pen.) · FBC Melgar
- 64' Nicolas Quagliata · yellow card · FBC Melgar
- 73' Bernardo Cuesta · goal · FBC Melgar
- 76' Cristian Bordacahar · goal · assist Horacio Orzan · FBC Melgar
- 90+5' Walter Tandazo · yellow card · FBC Melgar
Match stats
| Match stats | FBC Melgar | Deportivo Garcilaso |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 64 | 36 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.89 | 0.78 |
| Shots | 22 | 15 |
| Shots on target | 10 | 4 |
| Corners | 6 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 16 | 6 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 6 |
What the market said before kick-off
- FBC Melgar win 70% happened
- Draw 18% did not happen
- Deportivo Garcilaso win 12% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 60% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
- 21 J. Cabezudo GK
- 33 M. Lazo DF
- 23 J. Escobar DF
- 3 L. González DF
- 27 N. Cabanillas DF
- 24 W. Tandazo MF
- 25 K. Minda MF
- 7 C. Bordacahar MF
- 10 N. Quagliata MF
- 11 J. Vidales MF
- 9 B. Cuesta FW
Bench: J. Alcántar, C. Cáceda, J. D´Arrigo, A. Deneumostier, L. Guzmán, H. Orzán, M. Portillo, F. Zanelatto, Matias Zegarra
Coach: M. Rondelli
Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
- 1 P. Zubczuk GK
- 55 E. Canales DF
- 2 A. Salazar DF
- 19 A. Gómez DF
- 23 X. Moreno DF
- 8 A. González MF
- 11 F. Arancibia MF
- 10 P. Labrin MF
- 18 C. Ramos MF
- 30 L. da Silva MF
- 9 F. Castelli FW
Bench: L. Ríos, A. Rosell, S. Ramírez, F. Pacheco, C. Olivares, J. Mendoza, J. Barbieri, A. Ascues, C. Torrejón
Coach: Lisandro Greppo
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 70 / 18 / 12% when the line-ups came out, 70 / 18 / 12% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 22% | 17% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 45% | 29% | 26% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 3 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–2 (FBC Melgar wins – draws – Deportivo Garcilaso wins).
FBC Melgar scored 1.4 and conceded 0.8 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Deportivo Garcilaso scored 1.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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