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Liga MX

Santos Laguna 5–0 Club Queretaro

Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Santos Laguna the most likely outcome at 41% — fair odds of 2.47. Unibet (NL) offers 2.50, a market gap of +1.3% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is Medium and model agreement is Low. Recent form — Santos Laguna: WWWWL; Club Queretaro: WWDWW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 3' Ezequiel Bullaude · yellow card · Santos Laguna
  2. 14' Francisco Villalba · missed penalty · Santos Laguna
  3. 29' Tahiel Adrian Jimenez · goal · Santos Laguna
  4. 44' Eduardo Aguirre · goal · assist Mauricio Cuevas · Santos Laguna
  5. 55' Carlo Garcia · yellow card · Club Queretaro
  6. 63' Tahiel Adrian Jimenez · goal · assist Ezequiel Bullaude · Santos Laguna
  7. 67' Diego Reyes · red card · Club Queretaro
  8. 70' Emmanuel Echeverria · yellow card · Santos Laguna
  9. 74' Bayron Duarte · yellow card · Club Queretaro
  10. 87' Javier Guemez (pen.) · Santos Laguna
  11. 90+3' Tahiel Adrian Jimenez · goal · assist Javier Abella · Santos Laguna

Match stats

Match statsSantos LagunaClub Queretaro
Possession %5842
Expected goals (xG)4.111.54
Shots1416
Shots on target52
Corners31
Yellow cards22
Red cards01
Fouls129
Offsides12
Goalkeeper saves20

What the market said before kick-off

  • Santos Laguna win 43% happened
  • Draw 27% did not happen
  • Club Queretaro win 30% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 58% happened
  • Both teams score 62% did not happen

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Mario Terrazas Chavez · Venue: Estadio TSM Corona, Torreon

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Santos Laguna 3-4-3

  1. 1 C. Acevedo GK
  2. 18 F. Pardo DF
  3. 25 Felipe Sánchez DF
  4. 14 E. Orona DF
  5. 3 M. Cuevas MF
  6. 23 F. Cáseres MF
  7. 21 Fran Villalba MF
  8. 17 E. Echeverría MF
  9. 29 Tahiel Adrián Jiménez Sánchez FW
  10. 19 E. Aguirre FW
  11. 10 E. Bullaude FW

Bench: Luis Gómez, R. Sordo, D. González, J. Abella, J. Güémez, H. Holguín, E. Lozano, A. López, S. Mariscal, Jonathan Pérez

Coach: Renato Paiva

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Diego González — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Kevin Palacios — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)

Club Queretaro 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 G. Allison GK
  2. 7 Iker Benito DF
  3. 13 D. Reyes DF
  4. 2 L. Abascia DF
  5. 27 D. Parra DF
  6. 4 Carlo Adriano MF
  7. 5 S. Homenchenko MF
  8. 16 E. Giménez MF
  9. 11 M. Coronel MF
  10. 17 D. Muñoz MF
  11. 9 A. Ávila FW

Bench: A. Alcalá, J. Martinez, B. Duarte, J. Hernández, W. Madrid, B. Parra, E. Pérez, J. Robles, C. Villanueva, Paulo Victor

Coach: E. González

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 45 / 26 / 29% when the line-ups came out, 43 / 27 / 30% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Micro-edge

1 Santos Laguna @ 2.50
Bookmaker Unibet (NL)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.50 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 2.47
Unibet (NL) 2.50
Confidence: Medium
Value-bet result Won · 1 +1.50u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Santos Laguna (1) was priced at 2.50 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 2.47 — a +1.3% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded39%27%34%
Other estimates
Our model28%27%45%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.42 / 3.47 / 2.78
Market Gap +1.3%
Confidence Medium
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · 1

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Santos Laguna · soft 2.50 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 2.47 · edge +1.3%
Opening sharp
2.42
At close
2.31 · CLV +8.3%
Result
Won +1.50u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–0 (Santos Laguna wins – draws – Club Queretaro wins).

Santos Laguna scored 1.6 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Club Queretaro scored 1.8 and conceded 0.4 in 5.

Since opening around 2.42, the sharp market price on Santos Laguna has shortened to 2.31 — the market has moved towards this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Santos Laguna has won its last 4 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Santos Laguna here.
Club Queretaro has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Club Queretaro here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Santos Laguna
W W W W L
avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Club Queretaro
W W D W W
avg 1.8 scored · 0.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
28 Feb 2026 Club Queretaro 2–2 Santos Laguna
26 Oct 2025 Santos Laguna 3–1 Club Queretaro

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/2 · Home or away
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.29
Closing odds 1.32
Prediction CLV -2.2%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Santos Laguna
Odds when flagged 2.50
Fair odds 2.47
Closing odds 2.31
Value CLV +8.3%
Profit (units) +1.50
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint ae4a4f2559373c94

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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