Sporting Kansas City 1–3 Real Salt Lake
Final score · Half-time 1–2 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, Real Salt Lake was the most likely outcome at 41% (fair odds 2.46). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — Sporting Kansas City: LDLWL; Real Salt Lake: DLWLL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 11' 0–1 Morgan Guilavogui · goal · assist Noel Caliskan · Real Salt Lake
- 14' 0–2 Sergi Solans · goal · Real Salt Lake
- 26' 1–2 Taylor Calheira · goal · assist André Luiz · Sporting Kansas City
- 45+1' Luc De Fougerolles · yellow card · Real Salt Lake
- 61' 1–3 Morgan Guilavogui · goal · assist Noel Caliskan · Real Salt Lake
- 72' Juan Sanabria · yellow card · Real Salt Lake
- 74' Calvin Harris · yellow card · Sporting Kansas City
- 76' Jacob Bartlett · yellow card · Sporting Kansas City
- 90+1' Chadwick Zachary Booth · yellow card · Real Salt Lake
- 90+1' Stijn Spierings · yellow card · Real Salt Lake
- 90+2' Jansen Miller · yellow card · Sporting Kansas City
Match stats
| Match stats | Sporting Kansas City | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 51 | 49 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.79 | 1.05 |
| Shots | 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 8 |
| Corners | 7 | 5 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 14 | 10 |
| Offsides | 2 | 2 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 5 | 1 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Sporting Kansas City win 32% did not happen
- Draw 24% did not happen
- Real Salt Lake win 43% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 64% happened
- Both teams score 67% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
- 30 S. Cleveland GK
- 16 J. Bartlett DF
- 15 Jansen Miller DF
- 28 Wyatt Meyer DF
- 18 E. Karić DF
- 11 André Luiz MF
- 20 K. Agyabeng MF
- 22 Z. Bassong MF
- 14 C. Harris MF
- 19 T. Calheira FW
- 17 S. Afrifa FW
Bench: M. Suleymanov, J. Davis, Capita, E. Bartlow, S. Reid, I. James, J. Pulskamp, R. Ramos, J. Reid
Coach: R. Wicky
Regular starters not in the XI
- Justin Reynolds — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Real Salt Lake 5-4-1
- 1 Rafael Cabral GK
- 11 D. Marczuk DF
- 3 K. Henry DF
- 44 L. De Fougerolles DF
- 26 P. Quinton DF
- 8 J. Sanabria DF
- 9 M. Guilavogui MF
- 6 S. Spierings MF
- 92 N. Caliskan MF
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze MF
- 22 S. Solans FW
Bench: Colin Guske, A. Hezarkhani, S. Junqua, A. Katránis, A. Piol, M. Stajduhar, D. Yedlin, Chadwick Zachary Booth, Dušan Žagar
Coach: P. Mastroeni
Regular starters not in the XI
- D. Yedlin — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 33 / 25 / 42% when the line-ups came out, 32 / 24 / 43% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 35% | 24% | 41% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
Sporting Kansas City averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Real Salt Lake averaged 1.0 and 1.6 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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