FC Seoul 2–2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · Latest results
When the micro-edge on FC Seoul was recorded live, the sharp market made FC Seoul the most likely outcome at 72% (fair odds 1.38). On FC Seoul, LeoVegas (SE) offered 1.40 against a fair price of 1.38, a +1.4% gap: too small to call value (Micro-edge). Recent form — FC Seoul: LWLLW; Gimcheon Sangmu FC: LWDDD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 22' 1–0 Patryk Klimala · goal · assist Jeong Seung-Won · FC Seoul
- 45' Kim Jin-Su · yellow card · FC Seoul
- 45+1' 1–1 Lee Sang-heon (pen.) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 45+6' Yoon Jae-Seok · yellow card · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 50' Son Jeong-Beom · yellow card · FC Seoul
- 52' 2–1 Patryk Klimala · goal · assist Moon Seon-min · FC Seoul
- 66' Juan Antonio Ros Martínez · yellow card · FC Seoul
- 67' 2–2 Kim In-gyun (pen.) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 80' Byeon Jun-Soo · yellow card · Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- 90+4' Hwang Do-yoon · yellow card · FC Seoul
Match stats
| Match stats | FC Seoul | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 56 | 44 |
| Shots | 8 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 4 |
| Corners | 4 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 4 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
What the market said before kick-off
- FC Seoul win 70% did not happen
- Draw 18% happened
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC win 12% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 63% happened
- Micro-edge flagged before kick-off (under 1.5%, monitor only): 1 · FC Seoul @ 1.40 (LeoVegas (SE)) Lost
CLV -2.4% vs the fair close. One flag on its own says little; the rule is judged on all of them.
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
FC Seoul 4-4-2
- 25 Gu Sung-Yun GK
- 16 Choi Jun DF
- 5 Yazan Al Arab DF
- 37 Juan Antonio DF
- 22 Kim Jin-Su DF
- 7 Jeong Seung-Won MF
- 42 J. Son MF
- 6 H. Babec MF
- 10 Anderson Oliveira MF
- 27 Moon Seon-Min FW
- 9 P. Klimala FW
Bench: Lee Han-Do, Lee Sang-Min, Park Jang Han-Gyeol, Baek Jong-Beom, Cheon Seong-Hoon, Cho Young-Wook, Hwang Do-Yoon, Park Soo-Il, Hyeon-Woo Jeong
Coach: Kim Gi-Dong
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4-4-2
- 51 Ahn Joon-Soo GK
- 42 Hong Si-Hoo DF
- 45 Byeon Jun-Soo DF
- 5 Kim Min-Kyu DF
- 33 Park Jin-Seong DF
- 54 Yoon Jae-Seok MF
- 55 Park Tae-Jun MF
- 56 Lee Kang-Hyun MF
- 48 Hong Yun-Sang MF
- 47 Lee Sang-Heon FW
- 49 M. Kang FW
Bench: Kang Ju-Hyeok, Kim In-Gyun, Lee Sang-Hyeok, Min Kyeong-hyeon, Park Man-Ho, Park Min-Seo, Roh Kyung-Ho, Chung Ma-Ho, Jeong Jae-Min
Coach: Seung-jin Joo
Regular starters not in the XI
- Park Man-Ho — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
- Go Jae-Hyeon — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Park Cheol-Woo — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 69 / 18 / 12% when the line-ups came out, 70 / 18 / 12% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off Micro-edge
Market discrepancy: before kick-off, FC Seoul (1) was priced at 1.40 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.38 — a +1.4% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.
The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.
A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 61% | 22% | 18% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Value lifecycle Settled
“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.
Match context
FC Seoul averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Gimcheon Sangmu FC averaged 1.2 and 1.0 over 5.
Since opening around 1.60, the sharp market price on FC Seoul has shortened to 1.44 — the market has moved towards this outcome.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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