Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 VfL Osnabrück
Final score · Half-time 1–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Arminia Bielefeld the most likely outcome at 60% — fair odds of 1.68. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Arminia Bielefeld: WDLDL; VfL Osnabrück: DDLWL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 2' Robin Fabinski · yellow card · VfL Osnabrück
- 16' Robin Meißner · goal · VfL Osnabrück
- 26' Maximilian Bauer · goal · assist Arne Sicker · Arminia Bielefeld
- 38' Benjamin boakye · yellow card · Arminia Bielefeld
- 85' Jannik Rochelt · goal · assist monju thaddaus momuluh · Arminia Bielefeld
- 86' Maximilian Grosser · yellow card · Arminia Bielefeld
- 89' Stefano Russo · yellow card · Arminia Bielefeld
Match stats
| Match stats | Arminia Bielefeld | VfL Osnabrück |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 51 | 49 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 | 1.48 |
| Shots | 15 | 8 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 1 |
| Corners | 6 | 0 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 14 | 11 |
| Offsides | 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 0 | 1 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Arminia Bielefeld win 49% happened
- Draw 27% did not happen
- VfL Osnabrück win 24% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 53% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Arminia Bielefeld 4-1-4-1
- 1 J. Kersken GK
- 2 F. Hagmann DF
- 5 M. Bauer DF
- 19 M. Großer DF
- 17 A. Sicker DF
- 21 S. Russo MF
- 27 Benjamin Bediako Boakye FW
- 31 L. Jensen MF
- 38 M. Wörl MF
- 30 I. Young FW
- 11 J. Grodowski FW
Bench: V. Ocansey, L. Oppermann, J. Rochelt, J. Felix, T. Handwerker, H. Koudossou, S. Schreck, M. Mehlem, M. Momuluh
Coach: Oliver Kirch
Regular starters not in the XI
- H. Koudossou — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- M. Momuluh — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- J. Rochelt — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
VfL Osnabrück 3-4-2-1
- 32 J. Krumrey GK
- 27 R. Fabinski DF
- 24 J. Müller DF
- 25 N. Wiemann DF
- 31 P. Kammerbauer DF
- 18 L. Flach MF
- 15 B. Jacobsen MF
- 42 J. Gómez DF
- 21 A. Beck MF
- 10 I. Badjie DF
- 11 R. Meißner FW
Bench: T. Janotta, D. Kyereh, L. Münst, L. Raimund, B. Riesselmann, N. Sauter, F. Wagner, J. Abu Hanna, K. Faber
Coach: T. Schultz
Regular starters not in the XI
- F. Wagner — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 50 / 26 / 24% when the line-ups came out, 49 / 27 / 24% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 60% | 22% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Arminia Bielefeld wins – draws – VfL Osnabrück wins).
Arminia Bielefeld scored 1.4 and conceded 2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; VfL Osnabrück scored 1.4 and conceded 2 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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