SHANGHAI SIPG 3–0 Chengdu Better City
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · Latest results
In the sharp price we recorded for this match, SHANGHAI SIPG was the most likely outcome at 48% (fair odds 2.08). No value was flagged: no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule. Recent form — SHANGHAI SIPG: DWWDW; Chengdu Better City: LDWLW.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 13' Zhang Linpeng · yellow card · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 54' O. Melendo · yellow card · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 55' Browning Tyias · yellow card · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 57' 1–0 Wang Dongsheng (own goal) · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 59' Matheus Jussa · yellow card · Chengdu Better City
- 83' 2–0 Leonardo · goal · assist Mateus Vital · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 89' Yan Junling · yellow card · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 90+4' X. Li · yellow card · SHANGHAI SIPG
- 90+4' 3–0 Wu Lei · goal · assist P. O. Ampem · SHANGHAI SIPG
Match stats
| Match stats | SHANGHAI SIPG | Chengdu Better City |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 67 | 33 |
| Shots | 17 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 3 |
| Corners | 5 | 1 |
| Yellow cards | 5 | 1 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 15 | 17 |
| Offsides | 2 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 3 |
| Pass accuracy % | 82 | 66 |
What the market said before kick-off
- SHANGHAI SIPG win 53% happened
- Draw 25% did not happen
- Chengdu Better City win 22% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 65% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
SHANGHAI SIPG 4-2-3-1
- 1 Yan Junling GK
- 3 Guangtai Jiang DF
- 13 Zhen Wei DF
- 40 Yusup Umidjan DF
- 32 Shuai Li DF
- 8 Jean Claude Aziangbe MF
- 10 Mateus Vital MF
- 33 Liu Zhurun MF
- 21 Óscar Melendo MF
- 17 Prince Ampem MF
- 45 Leonardo FW
Bench: Chen Wei, Shimeng Bao, Zhang Linpeng, Yue Xin, Wang Shenchao, Yuan Zhang, Lu Yongtao, Kuai Jiwen, Yang Shiyuan, Xinxiang Li, Matthew Orr, Wu Lei
Chengdu Better City 4-2-3-1
- 32 Liu Dianzuo GK
- 4 He Yiran DF
- 19 Dong Yanfeng DF
- 28 Egor Sorokin DF
- 2 Hu Hetao DF
- 16 Yang Ming-Yang MF
- 5 Matheus Jussa MF
- 17 Wang Dongsheng MF
- 20 Wang Ziming MF
- 27 Baihelamu Abuduwaili MF
- 9 Felipe Silva FW
Bench: Tao Jian, Weifeng Ran, Yang Li, Liao Rongxiang, Iminqari Mutallep, Wellington Silva, Rômulo, Gan Chao, Liao Lisheng, Feng Zhuoyi, Mirahmetjan Muzepper, Weihao Shuai
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 50 / 25 / 25% when the line-ups came out, 53 / 25 / 22% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Two most likely results
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 30% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
SHANGHAI SIPG averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over their last 5 matches in our results database; Chengdu Better City averaged 1.8 and 1.8 over 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Form: most recent match first.
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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