Cambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
Final score · Half-time 2–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes AZ Alkmaar the most likely outcome at 70% — fair odds of 1.43. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Cambuur: WDWDL; AZ Alkmaar: WLWLD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 7' Nicolas Binder · goal · assist Jason Ceka · Cambuur
- 10' Lewis Schouten · yellow card · AZ Alkmaar
- 24' Devid Eugene Bouah · yellow card · Cambuur
- 26' Ro Zangelo Daal · goal · assist Peer Koopmeiners · AZ Alkmaar
- 39' Ilyes Hamache · goal · assist Billy van Duijl · Cambuur
- 53' Devid Eugene Bouah · red card · Cambuur
- 59' Ayoub Oufkir · yellow card · AZ Alkmaar
- 81' Johan Plat · yellow card · Cambuur
- 82' Thijs Jansen · yellow card · Cambuur
- 83' Mexx Meerdink (pen.) · AZ Alkmaar
Match stats
| Match stats | Cambuur | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 36 | 64 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Shots | 11 | 7 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 4 |
| Corners | 3 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 1 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 15 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 4 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Cambuur win 15% did not happen
- Draw 19% happened
- AZ Alkmaar win 66% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Cambuur 4-2-3-1
- 1 T. Jansen GK
- 2 D. Bouah DF
- 4 I. Baouf DF
- 14 B. van Duijl DF
- 28 M. Costarelli DF
- 33 M. Maertens MF
- 8 N. Souren MF
- 30 J. Çeka MF
- 10 R. El Arguioui MF
- 11 I. Hamache MF
- 13 N. Binder FW
Bench: M. Kalisvaart, L. Jetten, Iwan Henstra, S. Bouhoudane, J. Berkhout, W. Kooistra, F. Kvam, R. Mulders, L. Plogmann, S. Vink, D. Westerhof, Ethan Apkakou
Coach: J. Plat
Regular starters not in the XI
- F. Kvam — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
AZ Alkmaar 4-2-3-1
- 28 J. De Busser GK
- 22 E. Dijkstra DF
- 3 W. Goes DF
- 4 L. Schouten DF
- 5 M. Chávez DF
- 8 J. Clasie MF
- 6 P. Koopmeiners MF
- 24 A. Oufkir MF
- 14 C. Stengs MF
- 11 R. Daal MF
- 9 M. Meerdink FW
Bench: Wassim bouziane, V. Byskov, M. de Wit, W. Hoedt, R. Ichihara, D. Kasius, B. Kovacs, D. Kwakman, S. Maikuma, R. Owusu-Oduro, Weslley Patati, Jerolldino Bergraaf
Coach: L. Echteld
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 15 / 18 / 67% when the line-ups came out, 15 / 19 / 66% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 14% | 17% | 70% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 14% | 17% | 69% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–1–3 (Cambuur wins – draws – AZ Alkmaar wins).
Cambuur scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; AZ Alkmaar scored 0.8 and conceded 1 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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