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Eliteserien

Molde 6–1 Start

Final score · Half-time 2–0 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Molde the most likely outcome at 74% — fair odds of 1.35. LeoVegas (SE) offers 1.36, a market gap of +0.6% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Micro-edge). Confidence is High and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Molde: DLWWW; Start: LLWLW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 19' Santino Samuyiwa · yellow card · Start
  2. 29' Sander Hestetun Kilen · goal · assist Caleb Sery · Molde
  3. 38' Erlend Segberg · yellow card · Start
  4. 39' Kristian Lonebu (pen.) · Molde
  5. 53' Fredrik Kristensen Dahl · yellow card · Molde
  6. 54' Nikolaos Koutsakos · missed penalty · Start
  7. 54' John Olav Norheim · goal · assist Mikael Ugland · Start
  8. 56' Caleb Sery · goal · assist Sander Hestetun Kilen · Molde
  9. 65' Sander Hestetun Kilen · goal · assist Emil Breivik · Molde
  10. 72' Eirik Haugan · yellow card · Molde
  11. 76' Sander Hestetun Kilen · goal · Molde
  12. 79' Emil Breivik · goal · assist Niklas Ödegard · Molde

Match stats

Match statsMoldeStart
Possession %6832
Expected goals (xG)3.711.76
Shots2110
Shots on target123
Corners56
Yellow cards22
Red cards00
Fouls610
Offsides02
Goalkeeper saves25

What the market said before kick-off

  • Molde win 72% happened
  • Draw 16% did not happen
  • Start win 12% did not happen
  • Over 2.5 goals 73% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Stian Rovig Sletner · Venue: Aker Stadion, Molde

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Molde 4-4-2

  1. 22 A. Posiadała GK
  2. 25 M. Linnes DF
  3. 19 E. Haugan DF
  4. 27 F. Dahl DF
  5. 8 M. Løvik DF
  6. 11 C. Zady Sery MF
  7. 17 M. Møller Dæhli MF
  8. 23 S. Granaas MF
  9. 16 S. Kilen MF
  10. 20 K. Lonebu FW
  11. 10 E. Breivik FW

Bench: J. Abdulai, V. Bender, D. Daga, S. Kabini, Trent Toure Kone Doherty, P. Lervik, N. Ødegård, B. Risa, O. Spiten-Nysæter

Coach: S. Tjelmeland

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Daniel Daga — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
  • Samukelo Kabini — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • Jalal Abdullai — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Start 5-3-2

  1. 26 M. Sjøeng GK
  2. 29 E. Reitan DF
  3. 5 S. Granheim DF
  4. 6 J. Norheim DF
  5. 27 O. Toure DF
  6. 12 D. Dashaev DF
  7. 10 S. Mvoué MF
  8. 23 E. Segberg MF
  9. 18 M. Ugland MF
  10. 17 J. Cornelius FW
  11. 20 H. Lorentzen FW

Bench: S. Strand-Kolbjørnsen, F. Pålerud, J. Meyer, N. Koutsakos, N. Jojić, A. Ujkani, S. Samuyiwa

Coach: A. Karadas

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 71 / 16 / 13% when the line-ups came out, 72 / 16 / 12% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Micro-edge

1 Molde @ 1.36
Bookmaker LeoVegas (SE)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 1.36 (LeoVegas (SE)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 1.35
LeoVegas (SE) 1.36
Confidence: High
Value-bet result Won · 1 +0.36u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Molde (1) was priced at 1.36 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.35 — a +0.6% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

The gap was smaller than 1.5% — likely to vanish in rounding, latency or line movement. We logged it for transparency, but it was not a strong signal.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1 Home win 73%
1X2
Sharp, recorded73%15%12%
Other estimates
Our model63%21%16%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.34 / 5.59 / 7.11
Market Gap +0.6%
Confidence High
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Won · 1

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Molde · soft 1.36 (LeoVegas (SE)) · fair 1.35 · edge +0.6%
Opening sharp
1.34
At close
1.39 · CLV -2.2%
Result
Won +0.36u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 3 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–1–0 (Molde wins – draws – Start wins).

Molde scored 2.8 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Start scored 1.6 and conceded 2 in 5.

Since opening around 1.34, the sharp market price on Molde has drifted to 1.39 — the market has moved against this outcome.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Molde is averaging 2.8 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Molde here.
Start has lost its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Start here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Molde
D L W W W
avg 2.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)
Start
L L W L W
avg 1.6 scored · 2 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
19 Apr 2026 Start 1–1 Molde
05 Aug 2020 Molde 5–0 Start
24 Jun 2020 Start 2–3 Molde

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.34
Closing odds 1.37
Prediction CLV -2.2%
Result Won
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Molde
Odds when flagged 1.36
Fair odds 1.35
Closing odds 1.39
Value CLV -2.2%
Profit (units) +0.36
Result Won
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint c32142a2115cfaaf

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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