Sturm Graz 6–1 Grazer AK
Final score · Half-time 3–1 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Sturm Graz the most likely outcome at 58% — fair odds of 1.73. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Sturm Graz: LWLDW; Grazer AK: DDWDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 10' Christopher Cvetko · goal · assist Yannick Oberleitner · Grazer AK
- 37' Luca Weinhandl · goal · assist Valmir Matoshi · Sturm Graz
- 39' Jurgen Heil · goal · assist Luis Balbo · Sturm Graz
- 41' Oumar Diakité · goal · Sturm Graz
- 45+7' Joshua Quarshie · disallowed by VAR · Sturm Graz
- 48' Mark Große · yellow card · Grazer AK
- 49' Oumar Diakité · goal · assist Simon Seidl · Sturm Graz
- 51' Oumar Diakité · goal · assist Simon Seidl · Sturm Graz
- 52' Oumar Diakité · yellow card · Sturm Graz
- 53' Alexander Hofleitner · yellow card · Grazer AK
- 75' Jon Gorenc Stanković · goal · assist Simon Seidl · Sturm Graz
- 82' Julian Halwachs · yellow card · Sturm Graz
Match stats
| Match stats | Sturm Graz | Grazer AK |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 55 | 45 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 3.63 | 0.61 |
| Shots | 23 | 12 |
| Shots on target | 10 | 3 |
| Corners | 7 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 2 | 2 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 17 |
| Offsides | 5 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 4 |
What the market said before kick-off
- Sturm Graz win 49% happened
- Draw 27% did not happen
- Grazer AK win 24% did not happen
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
Sturm Graz
- 27 L. Balbo DF
- 14 O. Diakité FW
- 4 J. Gorenc Stankovič MF
- 28 J. Heil MF
- 30 P. Koller DF
- 23 A. Malic MF
- 78 V. Matoshi MF
- 2 J. Quarshie DF
- 19 S. Seidl MF
- 39 Luca Weinhandl MF
- 53 D. Khudyakov GK
Bench: P. Petrović, A. Kayombo, Jacob Peter Hödl, A. Helac, J. Halwachs, N. Geyrhofer, B. Beganović, A. Vallci, S. Włodarczyk
Coach: F. Ingolitsch
Regular starters not in the XI
- Jacob Peter Hödl — on the bench (started 5 of the last 5)
Grazer AK
- 21 M. Sollbauer DF
- 82 B. Owusu DF
- 27 Y. Oberleitner DF
- 34 P. Michorl MF
- 10 C. Lichtenberger MF
- 32 L. Klassen DF
- 14 J. Italiano MF
- 25 A. Hofleitner FW
- 24 C. Cvetko MF
- 28 Anderson DF
- 23 C. Stanković GK
Bench: L. Vraa-Jensen, M. Gragger, M. Große, T. Koch, D. Maderner, S. Mandey, Petar Markovic, C. Nicht, T. Trummer
Coach: G. Scheiblehner
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 50 / 26 / 24% when the line-ups came out, 49 / 27 / 24% at kick-off.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 16% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 4–0–0 (Sturm Graz wins – draws – Grazer AK wins).
Sturm Graz scored 0.8 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Grazer AK scored 0.8 and conceded 0.8 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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- Our full track record: every prediction, losses included