NK Slaven Belupo 1–5 Dinamo Zagreb
Final score · Half-time 1–3 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes Dinamo Zagreb the most likely outcome at 72% — fair odds of 1.39. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — NK Slaven Belupo: WDLWL; Dinamo Zagreb: WLWDL.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 16' Dani Rodríguez · goal · assist Dion Drena Beljo · Dinamo Zagreb
- 31' Dion Drena Beljo (pen.) · Dinamo Zagreb
- 40' Dion Drena Beljo · goal · assist Mislav Oršić · Dinamo Zagreb
- 45' Jon Mersinaj · goal · NK Slaven Belupo
- 65' Miha Zajc · goal · Dinamo Zagreb
- 71' Niko Galesic · goal · assist Mislav Oršić · Dinamo Zagreb
Match stats
| Match stats | NK Slaven Belupo | Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 41 | 59 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.19 | 3.78 |
| Shots | 11 | 17 |
| Shots on target | 6 | 8 |
| Corners | 5 | 2 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 0 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 8 | 11 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 3 | 5 |
What the market said before kick-off
- NK Slaven Belupo win 13% did not happen
- Draw 17% did not happen
- Dinamo Zagreb win 70% happened
- Over 2.5 goals 68% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
NK Slaven Belupo 4-2-3-1
- 32 I. Čović GK
- 18 F. Krušelj DF
- 15 J. Mersinaj DF
- 4 D. Kovačić DF
- 77 I. Urata DF
- 22 A. Adeshina MF
- 17 F. Mažar MF
- 11 J. Mitrović MF
- 29 Lovro Loncaric MF
- 8 L. Banovec MF
- 90 I. Nestorovski FW
Bench: L. Bošnjak, L. Crepulja, I. Cvetko, A. Jónsson, F. Kutlesa, V. Međimorec, V. Papac, M. Pavli, Losika Ratshukudu, K. Sentić, L. Zahora, D. Bosak
Coach: S. Čabraja
Regular starters not in the XI
- T. Božić — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- M. Dabro — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
- Leon Bošnjak — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Dinamo Zagreb 4-1-4-1
- 24 D. Kotarski GK
- 25 M. Valinčić DF
- 15 N. Galešić DF
- 26 S. McKenna DF
- 3 B. Goda DF
- 27 J. Mišić MF
- 7 Dani Rodríguez MF
- 10 L. Stojković MF
- 5 K. Kravtsov MF
- 99 M. Oršić MF
- 9 D. Beljo FW
Bench: A. Hoxha, I. Filipović, Sergi Domínguez, Iker Almena, L. Ivanušec, L. Kačavenda, S. Prevljak, Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf, S. Radeljić, Paul Bismarck Tabinas, F. Topić, M. Zajc
Coach: Mario Kovacevic
Regular starters not in the XI
- Sergi Domínguez — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Olof Matteo Perez Vinlöf — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 13 / 17 / 70% when the line-ups came out, 13 / 17 / 70% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 12% | 16% | 72% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–0–5 (NK Slaven Belupo wins – draws – Dinamo Zagreb wins).
NK Slaven Belupo scored 1.6 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Dinamo Zagreb scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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