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Segunda Division

Valladolid 2–3 Eldense

Final score · Half-time 1–2 · All of yesterday's results

The sharp market makes Valladolid the most likely outcome at 51% — fair odds of 1.98. Unibet (NL) offers 2.02, a market gap of +2% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is High and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Valladolid: WDWDL; Eldense: WWLLW.

After the whistle

Goals and cards

  1. 23' Adrian Arnu · goal · assist Julien Ponceau · Valladolid
  2. 34' Fidel · yellow card · Eldense
  3. 41' Jorge Rastrojo · goal · assist Javi Martínez · Eldense
  4. 45+1' Aingeru Olabarrieta · goal · assist Ramón Vila Rovira · Eldense
  5. 45+5' Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda · yellow card · Valladolid
  6. 45+5' Justin Smith · yellow card · Eldense
  7. 57' Víctor Fernández · yellow card · Valladolid
  8. 62' Jorge Rastrojo · yellow card · Eldense
  9. 72' Víctor Fernández · red card · Valladolid
  10. 78' Juan Larios López · yellow card · Eldense
  11. 82' Iván Alejo · yellow card · Valladolid
  12. 83' Victor Barbera · goal · assist Tay Abed · Valladolid
  13. 90+5' Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo · goal · assist Aingeru Olabarrieta · Eldense

Match stats

Match statsValladolidEldense
Possession %5743
Expected goals (xG)1.522.77
Shots1613
Shots on target55
Corners132
Yellow cards34
Red cards10
Fouls1013
Offsides21
Goalkeeper saves23

What the market said before kick-off

  • Valladolid win 52% did not happen
  • Draw 27% did not happen
  • Eldense win 21% happened
  • Over 2.5 goals 48% happened

Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.

Referee: Jose Antonio Sanchez Villalobos · Venue: Estadio José Zorrilla, Valladolid

Next matches

Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.

Starting line-ups

Valladolid 4-1-3-2

  1. 1 Álvaro Aceves GK
  2. 2 Trilli DF
  3. 15 Pablo Tomeo DF
  4. 4 David Torres DF
  5. 27 Iván Garriel DF
  6. 24 S. Jurić MF
  7. 8 T. Ojeda MF
  8. 30 Víctor Fernández MF
  9. 21 J. Ponceau MF
  10. 9 Juanmi Latasa FW
  11. 19 Adrian Arnuncio FW

Bench: Álex Balboa, Iván Alejo, Homam Ahmed, Victor Barberá, Yeray Cabanzón, Clerc, M. Lachuer, Dani Martín, Ramón Martínez, K. de Rooij, R. Duiven, T. Abed

Coach: Fran Escribá

Regular starters not in the XI

  • Iván Alejo — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Eldense 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Ramón Vila GK
  2. 17 Jesús Clemente DF
  3. 5 Alex Serradell DF
  4. 4 F. Smand DF
  5. 3 Juan Larios DF
  6. 14 J. Smith MF
  7. 15 Carlos Guirao MF
  8. 10 Fidel MF
  9. 24 Javi Martínez MF
  10. 33 Aingeru Olabarrieta MF
  11. 7 Jorge Rastrojo FW

Bench: Manu Nieto, Jordi Martín, A. Ibarrondo, M. Carmona, Marcos Bustillo, J. Yanda, Iker Recio, Dinis Rodrigues, Juanpa, J. Olaizola

Coach: Javi Calleja

Regular starters not in the XI

  • A. Ibarrondo — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
  • Manu Nieto — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)

Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.

Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 51 / 27 / 22% when the line-ups came out, 52 / 27 / 21% at kick-off.

In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity before kick-off Value flag

1 Valladolid @ 2.02
Bookmaker Unibet (NL)
Price observed
Flag recorded @ 2.02 (Unibet (NL)) · recorded live, before kick-off
Market 1X2 (match result)
Availability and exact price varied by country and over time.
Fair price 1.98
Unibet (NL) 2.02
Confidence: High
Value-bet result Lost · 1 -1.00u

Market discrepancy: before kick-off, Valladolid (1) was priced at 2.02 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 1.98 — a +2% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

1/X Home or draw 77%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

1X2
Sharp, recorded51%27%23%
Other estimates
Our model41%28%32%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.29
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.90 / 3.44 / 4.04
Market Gap +2%
Confidence High
Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Lost · 2

Value lifecycle Settled

Detected ·
1 Valladolid · soft 2.02 (Unibet (NL)) · fair 1.98 · edge +2%
Opening sharp
1.90
At close
1.91 · CLV +5.6%
Result
Lost -1.00u 🔒 Recorded live before kick-off

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Valladolid wins – draws – Eldense wins).

Valladolid scored 2.2 and conceded 1.4 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Eldense scored 1.6 and conceded 1 in 5.

The sharp market price on Valladolid has barely moved since opening (1.90 to 1.91) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Valladolid is averaging 2.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches.
✓ And the market hasn't fully priced it in: value flagged on Valladolid at +2% above fair.
Eldense has won its last 2 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Eldense here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Valladolid
W D W D L
avg 2.2 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Eldense
W W L L W
avg 1.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
13 Apr 2024 Valladolid 1–0 Eldense
04 Oct 2023 Eldense 0–1 Valladolid

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1/X · Home or draw
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.22
Closing odds 1.23
Prediction CLV -0.4%
Result Lost
Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection 1 · Valladolid
Odds when flagged 2.02
Fair odds 1.98
Closing odds 1.91
Value CLV +5.6%
Profit (units) -1.00
Result Lost
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint d5bf1e70f7089f88

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit

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