PAOK 2–1 Iraklis 1908
Final score · Half-time 0–0 · All of yesterday's results
The sharp market makes PAOK the most likely outcome at 80% — fair odds of 1.25. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — PAOK: LWWLW; Iraklis 1908: WDDWD.
After the whistle
Goals and cards
- 7' Dimitrios Giannoulis · yellow card · PAOK
- 21' Carles Soria · yellow card · Iraklis 1908
- 41' Andrija Živković · yellow card · PAOK
- 49' Pedro Marques · goal · assist Carles Soria · Iraklis 1908
- 60' Pedro Marques · disallowed by VAR · Iraklis 1908
- 62' Simon Banza · goal · assist Andrija Živković · PAOK
- 64' Tom Louchet · yellow card · PAOK
- 68' Vassilis Sourlis · yellow card · Iraklis 1908
- 71' Yohan Roche · yellow card · Iraklis 1908
- 75' Nemanja Radoja · yellow card · Iraklis 1908
- 76' Cherif Ndiaye · disallowed by VAR · PAOK
- 90' Nanu · disallowed by VAR · Iraklis 1908
- 90' Yohan Roche · red card · Iraklis 1908
- 90+2' Giannis Michailidis · goal · assist Andrija Živković · PAOK
- 90+9' Marco Krainz · yellow card · Iraklis 1908
Match stats
| Match stats | PAOK | Iraklis 1908 |
|---|---|---|
| Possession % | 62 | 38 |
| Expected goals (xG) | 2.10 | 0.84 |
| Shots | 18 | 10 |
| Shots on target | 3 | 3 |
| Corners | 4 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 3 | 5 |
| Red cards | 0 | 1 |
| Fouls | 15 | 17 |
| Offsides | 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves | 2 | 1 |
What the market said before kick-off
- PAOK win 74% happened
- Draw 17% did not happen
- Iraklis 1908 win 9% did not happen
- Over 2.5 goals 55% happened
Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed, next to what happened. It is the market's view, not a tip: an outcome priced at 30% happens about 3 times in 10.
Next matches
Line-ups, events and match stats: API-Football.
Starting line-ups
PAOK 4-2-3-1
- 41 D. Monastirlis GK
- 3 J. Kenny DF
- 19 Diego Costa DF
- 5 G. Michailidis DF
- 13 D. Giannoulis DF
- 20 C. Zafeiris MF
- 18 K. Jakić MF
- 14 A. Živković MF
- 16 O. Ugresić MF
- 11 Taison MF
- 27 C. Ndiaye FW
Bench: M. Camara, S. Banza, D. Chatsidis, Elustondo, P. Hatzidiakos, T. Louchet, A. Mythou, V. Nikolakoulis, B. Santamaría, S. Shoretire, G. Taylor, A. Baba
Coach: A. Lisci
Regular starters not in the XI
- Dimitrios Pelkas — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- Rahman Baba — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
- Jiří Pavlenka — not in the squad (started 4 of the last 5)
Iraklis 1908 5-4-1
- 33 G. Athanasiadis GK
- 30 Carles Soria DF
- 2 P. Vouros DF
- 21 Piña DF
- 69 Y. Roche DF
- 31 Nanu DF
- 11 Ivi López MF
- 90 V. Sourlis MF
- 8 N. Radoja MF
- 18 R. Nizet MF
- 43 Pedro Marques FW
Bench: Vitor Meer, Nikolaos Anastasiadis, S. Chakla, K. Kaïboué, M. Krainz, K. Kushta, Daniel Muñoz Navas, Xande Silva, Carlis, R. Lauritsen, P. Tsintotas, A. Žulevič
Coach: W. Mazzarri
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Pinnacle, margin removed (home / draw / away): 74 / 17 / 9% when the line-ups came out, 74 / 17 / 9% at kick-off. The price barely moved after the line-ups.
In the big leagues, line-up news is usually already in the price by the time it is official.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check before kick-off
No value was flagged for this match: before kick-off, no bookmaker price we saw beat the fair price under our rule.
Most likely result
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 80% | 13% | 7% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Match context
PAOK scored 1.8 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Iraklis 1908 scored 1.2 and conceded 0.4 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Market-relevant trends
We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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