Saudi Pro League Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 15:20 UTC

Abha vs Al Kholood

No fresh sharp price right now
Line-ups usually from 14:55 UTC
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When we logged this match on 12 Oct, the sharp market made Al Kholood the most likely outcome at 40%, fair odds of 2.51. We have no fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call. Recent form — Abha: LDLLL; Al Kholood: LLLWD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value

No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.

Most likely result

1/2 Home or away 73%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp, recorded	33%	27%	40%

Other estimates

Our model	41%	29%	30%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.37

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.81 / 3.38 / 2.36

Market Gap —

Confidence —

Prediction result Pending

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Betano	22% fair 4.55 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2.5	52% fair 1.90 best 1.89 · SBO	48% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · Betano
3.5	30% fair 3.36 best 3.10 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · Betano

All lines (8)

Line	Over	Under
1.5	78% fair 1.28 best 1.28 · Betano	22% fair 4.55 best 4.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
2	1.43 fair best 1.42 · Betano	3.33 fair best 2.95 · Betano
2.25	1.67 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet	2.50 fair best 2.21 · 1xBet
2.5	52% fair 1.90 best 1.89 · SBO	48% fair 2.11 best 2.00 · Betano
2.75	2.16 fair best 2.16 · SBO	1.86 fair best 1.72 · 1xBet
3	2.59 fair best 2.47 · Betano	1.63 fair best 1.57 · Betano
3.5	30% fair 3.36 best 3.10 · BetVictor	70% fair 1.42 best 1.40 · Betano
4.5	14% fair 7.18 best 6.50 · BetVictor	86% fair 1.16 best 1.15 · Betano

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Abha	Al Kholood
−0.25	2.67 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
0	2.21 fair best 2.05 · Bet365	1.82 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
+0.25	1.84 fair best 1.78 · SBO	2.19 fair best 2.08 · Bet365
+0.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betano	39% fair 2.56 best 2.37 · Betano
+0.75	1.47 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.14 fair best 2.85 · Bet365

All lines (9)

Line	Abha	Al Kholood
−0.75	4.01 fair best 3.45 · Bet365	1.33 fair best 1.30 · Bet365
−0.5	32% fair 3.12 best 2.80 · Betano	68% fair 1.47 best 1.47 · Betano
−0.25	2.67 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet	1.60 fair best 1.55 · Bet365
0	2.21 fair best 2.05 · Bet365	1.82 fair best 1.75 · Bet365
+0.25	1.84 fair best 1.78 · SBO	2.19 fair best 2.08 · Bet365
+0.5	61% fair 1.64 best 1.62 · Betano	39% fair 2.56 best 2.37 · Betano
+0.75	1.47 fair best 1.40 · Bet365	3.14 fair best 2.85 · Bet365
+1	1.29 fair best 1.26 · Bet365	4.45 fair best 3.70 · Bet365
+1.25	1.25 fair best 1.22 · Bet365	5.07 fair best 4.15 · Bet365

Goals by team

Abha goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	75% fair 1.33 best 1.31 · Betano	25% fair 4.03 best 3.40 · Bet365
1.5	37% fair 2.73 best 2.50 · Bet365	63% fair 1.58 best 1.53 · Betano

Al Kholood goals

Line	Over	Under
1.5	42% fair 2.35 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.74 best 1.65 · Betano

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	79% fair 1.27 best 1.26 · Betano	21% fair 4.77 best 3.80 · BetVictor
1.5	42% fair 2.35 best 2.20 · Bet365	58% fair 1.74 best 1.65 · Betano

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
27% fair 3.74 best 3.40 · Bet365	42% fair 2.37 best 2.25 · Bet365	31% fair 3.22 best 3.00 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.42 · Betano	28% fair 3.53 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
1	1.86 fair best 1.85 · Betano	2.17 fair best 2.01 · SBO
1.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.77 · Betano	67% fair 1.50 best 1.45 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	72% fair 1.40 best 1.42 · Betano	28% fair 3.53 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook
0.75	1.54 fair best 1.50 · BetVictor	2.85 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
1	1.86 fair best 1.85 · Betano	2.17 fair best 2.01 · SBO
1.25	2.43 fair best 2.16 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.60 · BetVictor
1.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.77 · Betano	67% fair 1.50 best 1.45 · Betano

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
7.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.46 · 1xBet	36% fair 2.81 best 2.60 · Betano
8.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.82 · Betano	48% fair 2.07 best 1.93 · Betano
9.5	40% fair 2.53 best 2.37 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.55 · Betano

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
7.5	64% fair 1.55 best 1.46 · 1xBet	36% fair 2.81 best 2.60 · Betano
8	1.69 fair —	2.44 fair —
8.5	52% fair 1.94 best 1.82 · Betano	48% fair 2.07 best 1.93 · Betano
9	2.22 fair —	1.82 fair —
9.5	40% fair 2.53 best 2.37 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.55 · Betano

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Abha	Al Kholood
−1	3.04 fair best 2.83 · 1xBet	1.49 fair best 1.47 · Marathonbet
−0.5	41% fair 2.45 —	59% fair 1.69 —
0	2.13 fair best 1.88 · Marathonbet	1.89 fair best 1.75 · Marathonbet
+0.5	54% fair 1.86 best 2.00 · Bet365	46% fair 2.16 best 1.80 · Bet365
+1	1.67 fair best 1.57 · Marathonbet	2.49 fair best 2.19 · Marathonbet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Abha at home, Al Kholood away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Abha	Al Kholood
Goals scored per game	0.75	1.40 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game	1.88	1.80 (2.10)
Over 2.5 goals	63%	60% (60%)
Both teams scored	63%	70% (60%)
Clean sheets	13%	10% (10%)
Failed to score	38%	30% (40%)
xG for / against per game	0.74 / 1.55	2.21 / 2.43
Corners for / against per game	2.88 / 4.13	5.10 / 4.20
Cards per game	2.13	2.00

Over 2.5 goals: Abha in 63% and Al Kholood in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 52% for this match.

From 8 matches for Abha and 10 for Al Kholood. xG, corners and cards: 8 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

Abha scored 0.8 and conceded 1.6 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Al Kholood scored 1.2 and conceded 2.6 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Abha is winless in its last 5 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Abha here.

Al Kholood has lost its last 3 matches.

No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Al Kholood here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Abha

L D L L L

avg 0.8 scored · 1.6 conceded (last 5)

Al Kholood

L L L W D

avg 1.2 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Mon, 12 Oct 2026 · 05:02 UTC

Prediction record

Pick 1/2 · Home or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.28

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 8173688b51005492

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit