Monza 3–0 Cagliari
70' · Live score from API-Football, about a minute behind; the official result is confirmed after the match.
When we logged this match on 12 Oct, the sharp market made Monza the most likely outcome at 41%, fair odds of 2.46. We have no fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call. Recent form — Monza: LWLDL; Cagliari: DWWWL.
The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.
Value check
We flagged +1% on 1 on 15 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.
No fresh sharp price right now, so we make no value call.
Most likely result
When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp, recorded | 41% | 30% | 29% |
Other estimates
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
|---|
Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.
Starting line-ups
Monza 3-4-2-1
- 1 N. Törnqvist GK
- 60 E. Kouadio DF
- 2 S. Goglichidze DF
- 44 A. Carboni DF
- 19 S. Birindelli MF
- 8 M. Ondoa MF
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro MF
- 7 Ricardo Mangas MF
- 47 Dany Mota MF
- 46 Jay Robinson MF
- 9 Gustavo Varela FW
Bench: V. Antov, A. Bakoune, P. Ciurria, L. Colombo, A. Colpani, P. Cutrone, M. Folorunsho, O. Forson, M. Mout, C. Ngonge, A. Strajnar, D. Thiam
Coach: I. Juric
Regular starters not in the XI
- L. Lucchesi — not in the squad (started 5 of the last 5)
- M. Folorunsho — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Cagliari 4-3-1-2
- 1 E. Caprile GK
- 2 Zé Pedro DF
- 26 Y. Mina DF
- 15 J. Rodríguez DF
- 33 A. Obert DF
- 8 M. Adopo MF
- 6 H. Winks MF
- 4 A. Romano MF
- 70 D. Maldini MF
- 31 P. Mendy FW
- 18 M'Bala Nzola FW
Bench: Y. Sugawara, Ivan Stoyanov Sulev, A. Deiola, A. Sherri, B. Radunović, Y. Massolin, J. Liteta, R. Kofler, Kevin Carlos, R. Gagliardini, J. Fazzini, A. Fadera, R. Ciervo, G. Aurelio
Coach: F. Pisacane
Regular starters not in the XI
- Alessandro Deiola — on the bench (started 4 of the last 5)
Not in the XI does not mean injured: it can be rotation, a suspension or a knock. We only compare with the team's last 5 line-ups.
Match context
The last 4 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 1–1–2 (Monza wins – draws – Cagliari wins).
Monza scored 1.6 and conceded 2.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Cagliari scored 1 and conceded 0.6 in 5.
These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.
Why this price?
Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.
Public, timestamped record
This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →
Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →
Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.
Methodology
The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.
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