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Saudi Pro League

Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm

  • Fair price as of — it moves until kick-off
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The sharp market makes Al-Hilal Saudi FC the most likely outcome at 94% — fair odds of 1.06. No soft bookmaker is offering more than that fair price right now, so there is no value here — the honest call is to pass. Recent form — Al-Hilal Saudi FC: WWWWL; Al-Hazm: LDLWD.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value check

No value
Edge at detection +0.6% @ 1.07 ·
Edge right now No value at the current price

We flagged +0.6% on 1 on 15 Oct. The sharp market has since moved and that gap is gone — there is no value at the current price. We leave the record visible rather than deleting it.

No measurable value here — the bookmaker odds do not beat the fair price. We pass.

Betting on Al-Hilal Saudi FC anyway? The best price we see is 1.08 at Coral, +1.9% against the fair odds of 1.06. That is less than the gap we require before calling it value.

Most likely result

1 Home win 93%
1X2
Sharp now94%3%2%
Other estimates
Sharp, recorded93%4%3%
Our model83%11%6%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now ·

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.07
Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 1.06 / 13.94 / 16.30
Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 1.05 / 15.50 / 31.00
Market Gap —
Confidence —
Prediction result Pending

Prices across 26 bookmakers

Bookmaker 1X2
Fair line 1.0630.2143.45
Pinnacle sharp 1.05 17.80 24.20
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange 1.08 17.00 40.00
1xBet 1.03 15.50 ★ 31.00 ★
Betfair Sportsbook 1.05 14.00 31.00 ★
BoyleSports 1.06 10.00 17.00
Coral 1.08 ★ 15.00 21.00
Ladbrokes 1.07 15.00 21.00
Unibet (UK) 1.06 10.50 29.00
Show all 26 bookmakers
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange 1.08 17.00 40.00
Smarkets exchange 1.08 16.50 40.00
888sport 1.05 13.00 23.00
Betfred (UK) 1.05 10.00 21.00
Grosvenor 1.05 11.50 23.00
LeoVegas (SE) 1.02 11.50 21.00
LiveScore Bet 1.02 11.50 23.00
PMU (FR) 1.01 9.00 19.00
Paddy Power 1.04 13.00 26.00
Sky Bet 1.03 12.00 17.00
Tipico 1.01 15.00 25.00
Unibet (FR) 1.03 7.50 16.00
Unibet (NL) 1.05 11.50 23.00
Unibet (SE) 1.05 11.50 23.00
Virgin Bet 1.02 11.50 23.00
William Hill 1.05 13.00 23.00
Winamax (DE) 1.05 11.50 19.00
Winamax (FR) 1.04 10.50 17.00

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 3 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under
Line OverUnder
3.5 58% fair 1.72 best 1.72 · Betano 42% fair 2.38 best 2.25 · Unibet (NL)
3.75 1.90 fair best 1.82 · SBO 2.11 fair best 2.02 · SBO
4.5 36% fair 2.78 best 2.60 · Betano 64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Betano
All lines (8)
Line OverUnder
2.5 80% fair 1.25 best 1.29 · Betano 20% fair 4.93 best 4.00 · Bet365
3.25 1.54 fair best 1.52 · 1xBet 2.86 fair best 2.43 · 1xBet
3.5 58% fair 1.72 best 1.72 · Betano 42% fair 2.38 best 2.25 · Unibet (NL)
3.75 1.90 fair best 1.82 · SBO 2.11 fair best 2.02 · SBO
4 2.17 fair best 2.13 · SBO 1.86 fair best 1.78 · Betano
4.25 2.47 fair best 2.17 · BetVictor 1.68 fair best 1.59 · BetVictor
4.5 36% fair 2.78 best 2.60 · Betano 64% fair 1.56 best 1.53 · Betano
5.5 19% fair 5.15 best 4.40 · BetVictor 81% fair 1.24 best 1.24 · Betano

Double chance
1X12X2
98% fair 1.02 best 1.02 · William Hill 97% fair 1.03 best 1.05 · Bet365 6% fair 17.82 best 10.00 · Betfair Sportsbook

Asian handicap (home team line)
Line Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hazm
−3.25 2.48 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−3 2.18 fair best 2.14 · SBO 1.85 fair best 1.75 · Betano
−2.75 1.90 fair best 1.85 · Bet365 2.11 fair best 2.02 · SBO
−2.5 58% fair 1.73 best 1.72 · Bet365 42% fair 2.37 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
−2.25 1.54 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 2.84 fair best 2.44 · BetVictor
All lines (8)
Line Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hazm
−3.5 36% fair 2.79 best 2.62 · Betano 64% fair 1.56 best 1.62 · Betfair Sportsbook
−3.25 2.48 fair best 2.35 · Bet365 1.67 fair best 1.58 · Bet365
−3 2.18 fair best 2.14 · SBO 1.85 fair best 1.75 · Betano
−2.75 1.90 fair best 1.85 · Bet365 2.11 fair best 2.02 · SBO
−2.5 58% fair 1.73 best 1.72 · Bet365 42% fair 2.37 best 2.50 · Betfair Sportsbook
−2.25 1.54 fair best 1.58 · Bet365 2.84 fair best 2.44 · BetVictor
−2 1.36 fair best 1.42 · Betano 3.78 fair best 3.00 · Betano
−1.75 1.30 fair best 1.32 · Bet365 4.29 fair best 3.30 · Bet365

Goals by team

Al-Hilal Saudi FC goals

Line OverUnder
3.5 45% fair 2.20 best 2.10 · Bet365 55% fair 1.83 best 1.83 · Betfair Sportsbook
All lines (2)
Line OverUnder
2.5 70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Bet365 30% fair 3.35 best 3.00 · Betfair Sportsbook
3.5 45% fair 2.20 best 2.10 · Bet365 55% fair 1.83 best 1.83 · Betfair Sportsbook

Al-Hazm goals

Line OverUnder
0.5 39% fair 2.59 best 2.30 · 1xBet 61% fair 1.63 best 1.62 · Bet365

First half

First-half result

1X2
75% fair 1.34 best 1.35 · William Hill 21% fair 4.80 best 3.75 · Bet365 5% fair 21.98 best 17.00 · Bet365

First-half goals

Line OverUnder
1.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.81 · SBO 47% fair 2.14 best 2.03 · SBO
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
1 1.28 fair best 1.27 · BetVictor 4.60 fair best 3.54 · 1xBet
1.25 1.57 fair best 1.51 · BetVictor 2.76 fair best 2.39 · 1xBet
1.5 53% fair 1.87 best 1.81 · SBO 47% fair 2.14 best 2.03 · SBO
1.75 2.21 fair best 1.99 · BetVictor 1.82 fair best 1.71 · BetVictor
2 2.93 fair best 2.60 · Betano 1.52 fair best 1.50 · Betano

Corners

Total corners

Line OverUnder
9.5 55% fair 1.82 best 1.67 · Bet365 45% fair 2.22 best 2.13 · 1xBet
10 2.05 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 1.95 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
10.5 43% fair 2.33 best 2.12 · Betano 57% fair 1.75 best 1.71 · 1xBet
All lines (5)
Line OverUnder
9 1.59 fair best 1.43 · 1xBet 2.70 fair best 2.42 · 1xBet
9.5 55% fair 1.82 best 1.67 · Bet365 45% fair 2.22 best 2.13 · 1xBet
10 2.05 fair best 1.90 · Bet365 1.95 fair best 1.91 · 1xBet
10.5 43% fair 2.33 best 2.12 · Betano 57% fair 1.75 best 1.71 · 1xBet
11 2.81 fair best 2.28 · 1xBet 1.55 fair best 1.49 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line Al-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hazm
−6 2.80 fair best 2.35 · 1xBet 1.56 fair best 1.47 · 1xBet
−5.5 43% fair 2.31 best 2.04 · 1xBet 57% fair 1.76 best 1.68 · 1xBet
−5 2.02 fair best 2.00 · Bet365 1.98 fair best 1.86 · 1xBet
−4.5 56% fair 1.79 best 1.80 · Bet365 44% fair 2.26 best 2.06 · 1xBet
−4 1.60 fair best 1.46 · 1xBet 2.66 fair best 2.38 · 1xBet

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

  1. 3–013.3%fair 7.53
  2. 4–012.8%fair 7.80
  3. 2–010.3%fair 9.71
  4. 5–09.9%fair 10.08
  5. 6–06.4%fair 15.65
  6. 1–06.0%fair 16.66

Total goals

  • 01%
  • 17%
  • 212%
  • 318%
  • 4+62%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home, Al-Hazm away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matchesAl-Hilal Saudi FCAl-Hazm
Goals scored per game 3.00 (2.60) 1.20 (0.90)
Goals conceded per game 0.80 (1.20) 1.30 (1.90)
Over 2.5 goals 70% (70%) 40% (60%)
Both teams scored 40% (50%) 60% (60%)
Clean sheets 50% (40%) 30% (10%)
Failed to score 10% (10%) 20% (40%)
xG for / against per game 2.23 / 0.80 1.38 / 1.97
Corners for / against per game 6.60 / 3.30 4.00 / 5.30
Cards per game 1.10 2.30

Over 2.5 goals: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70% and Al-Hazm in 40% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 80% for this match.

From 10 matches for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 10 for Al-Hazm. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Match context

The last 2 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 2–0–0 (Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins – draws – Al-Hazm wins).

Al-Hilal Saudi FC scored 2.6 and conceded 1 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Al-Hazm scored 1 and conceded 1.4 in 5.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Market-relevant trends

Al-Hilal Saudi FC has won its last 4 matches.
No value Already reflected in the fair price — no value on Al-Hilal Saudi FC here.

We show the trend and whether it is already in the price. Most sites show the streak and let you assume you should bet it.

Why this price?

Al-Hilal Saudi FC
W W W W L
avg 2.6 scored · 1 conceded (last 5)
Al-Hazm
L D L W D
avg 1 scored · 1.4 conceded (last 5)
Recent head-to-head
02 May 2026 Al-Hazm 0–3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC
08 Jan 2026 Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3–0 Al-Hazm

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off
Prediction record
Pick 1 · Home win
Odds recorded for the prediction 1.06
Closing odds pending
Prediction CLV —
Result Pending
Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 5c2ab5a8495a37c3

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

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