La Liga Mon, 19 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano

Fair price as of 14:35 UTC — it moves until kick-off
Line-ups usually from 18:35 UTC
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The sharp market makes Rayo Vallecano the most likely outcome at 36% — fair odds of 2.75. 1xBet offers 3.09, a market gap of +2.3% above the fair price, which is where we flag value (Value flag). Confidence is Low and model agreement is Medium. Recent form — Getafe: DLWLD; Rayo Vallecano: DWLWL.

The most likely result is not the same as value: value is where a bookmaker pays more than the fair price, and the two can point to different outcomes.

Value opportunity Value flag

X Draw @ 3.09

Bookmaker 1xBet

Price observed Mon, 19 Oct · 14:34 UTC

Flag recorded Mon, 12 Oct · 05:30 UTC @ 3.26 (1xBet) · recorded live, before kick-off

Market 1X2 (match result)

Availability and exact price vary by country and over time.

Fair price 3.02

1xBet 3.09

Confidence: Low

Edge at detection +6.3% @ 3.26 · 12 Oct

Edge right now +2.3% @ 3.09 · 28 minutes ago

The gap has narrowed since detection — the sharp market moved toward the soft price. The number above is the edge that is actually left right now, not the one we flagged.

Market discrepancy: Draw (X) is priced at 3.09 by a soft bookmaker, above the fair price of 3.02 — a +2.3% gap. An observation about the price, not an instruction to bet.

A single result where a bookmaker pays above the fair price — separate from the main prediction below.

Most likely result

X/2 Draw or away 68%

When no single result is likely enough, our pick covers the two most probable outcomes (double chance).

	1	X	2
Sharp now	30%	33%	36%

Other estimates

Sharp, recorded	32%	33%	35%
Our model	36%	26%	38%

Sharp, recorded = Pinnacle when we logged the match (it can be days old). Our model = our own estimate, which on average predicts worse than the market.

Sharp now · 28 minutes ago

Fair odds of the pick (as recorded) 1.47

Sharp odds recorded for this prediction (Pinnacle) 2.99 / 2.95 / 2.74

Best soft odds now (1 / X / 2) 3.16 / 3.09 / 2.75

Market Gap +2.3%

Confidence Low

Model agreement Medium

Confidence reflects only the sharp probability of the selection: high from 50%, medium from 40%, low below. It says how likely the result is, not how big the price gap is. Model agreement shows how close our own model is to the sharp market on this selection — when it is Low, the market and our model disagree, so treat the flag with more caution.

Prediction result Pending

Prices across 39 bookmakers

Bookmaker	1	X	2
Fair line	3.28	3.02	2.75
Pinnacle sharp	3.19	2.94	2.68
Betfair Exchange (EU) exchange	3.20	3.00	2.76
Betfair Exchange (UK) exchange	3.20	3.00	2.76
Matchbook exchange	3.20	3.00	2.76
1xBet	3.13	3.09 ★	2.69
BetOnline.ag	3.16 ★	2.88	2.69
Coolbet	3.05	2.95	2.75 ★
Marathonbet	3.08	3.04	2.64

Show all 39 bookmakers

Smarkets exchange	3.20	3.00	2.76
BetVictor	3.12	2.80	2.62
Betano (UK)	3.12	2.80	2.62
Betclic (FR)	2.90	2.90	2.50
Betfair Sportsbook	3.10	2.88	2.70
Betfred (UK)	3.00	3.00	2.60
Betsson	3.05	2.88	2.62
Betway	3.10	2.80	2.60
BoyleSports	3.00	2.90	2.50
Casumo	3.05	2.90	2.55
Codere (IT)	3.05	2.90	2.65
Coral	3.10	2.87	2.60
Everygame	3.10	2.85	2.65
Grosvenor	3.00	2.85	2.50
Ladbrokes	3.00	2.87	2.60
LeoVegas	2.95	2.88	2.60
LeoVegas (SE)	2.95	2.80	2.48
LiveScore Bet	3.00	2.80	2.50
Nordic Bet	3.05	2.85	2.62
PMU (FR)	2.90	2.75	2.43
Paddy Power	3.00	2.80	2.62
Sky Bet	3.00	2.88	2.63
Tipico	3.10	2.90	2.55
Unibet (FR)	2.80	2.90	2.50
Unibet (NL)	3.15	3.00	2.63
Unibet (SE)	3.15	3.00	2.63
Unibet (UK)	3.00	2.88	2.65
Virgin Bet	2.95	2.80	2.48
William Hill	3.00	2.90	2.50
Winamax (DE)	2.95	2.95	2.55
Winamax (FR)	2.85	2.85	2.50

Latest price observed in the last 12 hours per bookmaker. Green = above the fair line; ★ = best soft price. Prices move; check the bookmaker before acting. Choose your bookmakers to see their price on every row

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Team news

Getafe

Out Z. Romero · injury started 7 of 8 team matches this season
Out O. Mangala · injury started 6 of 8 team matches this season
Doubtful A. Garcia · injury started 6 of 8 team matches this season
Doubtful I. Azon · injury started 4 of 8 team matches this season
Out C. Uche · injury
Out Juanmi · injury

Rayo Vallecano

Out A. Ratiu · injury started 6 of 8 team matches this season
Out A. Batalla · other reason started 2 of 8 team matches this season
Out Luiz Felipe · injury

Absences as reported by API-Football; the list can be incomplete, and doubtful players may still play. The market usually knows about an absence before it appears here.

All markets at the fair price

Fair probability from Pinnacle with the margin removed, line by line, next to the best price at other bookmakers. Pinnacle prices from 4 hours ago. We read these markets every 3 hours; the source itself refreshes them every few hours (more often close to kick-off).

Goals: over / under

Line	Over	Under
1.5	62% fair 1.61 best 1.63 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.65 best 2.50 · Bet365
2	2.14 fair best 2.07 · Coolbet	1.88 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet
2.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.82 · Betsson	67% fair 1.49 best 1.51 · 1xBet

All lines (9)

Line	Over	Under
1	1.21 fair best 1.20 · Coolbet	5.79 fair best 5.10 · Coolbet
1.25	1.40 fair best 1.35 · BetVictor	3.47 fair best 3.71 · 1xBet
1.5	62% fair 1.61 best 1.63 · 1xBet	38% fair 2.65 best 2.50 · Bet365
1.75	1.80 fair best 1.74 · BetOnline.ag	2.25 fair best 2.19 · SBO
2	2.14 fair best 2.07 · Coolbet	1.88 fair best 1.87 · 1xBet
2.25	2.57 fair best 2.38 · SBO	1.64 fair best 1.71 · 1xBet
2.5	33% fair 3.02 best 2.82 · Betsson	67% fair 1.49 best 1.51 · 1xBet
2.75	3.79 fair best 3.10 · Marathonbet	1.36 fair best 1.36 · Marathonbet
3	5.55 fair best 4.80 · Coolbet	1.22 fair best 1.22 · 1xBet

Both teams to score

Yes	No
43% fair 2.30 best 2.16 · 1xBet	57% fair 1.77 best 1.73 · Betfair Sportsbook

Double chance

1X	12	X2
64% fair 1.57 best 1.51 · 1xBet	67% fair 1.50 best 1.41 · 1xBet	70% fair 1.44 best 1.45 · 1xBet

Asian handicap (home team line)

Line	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
−0.5	30% fair 3.31 best 2.92 · Betano	70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano
−0.25	2.73 fair best 2.63 · SBO	1.58 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
0	2.18 fair best 2.10 · Bet365	1.85 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.76 fair best 1.74 · SBO	2.32 fair best 2.20 · SBO
+0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · Betano	36% fair 2.80 best 2.63 · SBO

All lines (9)

Line	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
−1	7.59 fair best 5.90 · Bet365	1.15 fair best 1.13 · 1xBet
−0.75	4.46 fair best 3.70 · Bet365	1.29 fair best 1.28 · 1xBet
−0.5	30% fair 3.31 best 2.92 · Betano	70% fair 1.43 best 1.44 · Betano
−0.25	2.73 fair best 2.63 · SBO	1.58 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet
0	2.18 fair best 2.10 · Bet365	1.85 fair best 1.90 · 1xBet
+0.25	1.76 fair best 1.74 · SBO	2.32 fair best 2.20 · SBO
+0.5	64% fair 1.56 best 1.52 · Betano	36% fair 2.80 best 2.63 · SBO
+0.75	1.38 fair best 1.35 · Bet365	3.61 fair best 3.15 · Marathonbet
+1	1.21 fair best 1.19 · Bet365	5.66 fair best 4.70 · BetVictor

Goals by team

Getafe goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.50 · 1xBet	36% fair 2.75 best 2.66 · Marathonbet

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	64% fair 1.57 best 1.50 · 1xBet	36% fair 2.75 best 2.66 · Marathonbet
1.5	24% fair 4.23 best 3.60 · Betfair Sportsbook	76% fair 1.31 best 1.36 · Marathonbet

Rayo Vallecano goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	67% fair 1.48 best 1.44 · Betano	33% fair 3.07 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook

All lines (2)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	67% fair 1.48 best 1.44 · Betano	33% fair 3.07 best 2.88 · Betfair Sportsbook
1.5	28% fair 3.61 best 3.20 · Betfair Sportsbook	72% fair 1.38 best 1.40 · Marathonbet

First half

First-half result

1	X	2
24% fair 4.16 best 3.80 · Betano	50% fair 2.02 best 1.95 · William Hill	26% fair 3.80 best 3.45 · Betano

First-half goals

Line	Over	Under
0.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.65 · Betano	40% fair 2.51 best 2.46 · 1xBet
0.75	1.98 fair best 1.94 · SBO	2.02 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet

All lines (4)

Line	Over	Under
0.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.65 · Betano	40% fair 2.51 best 2.46 · 1xBet
0.75	1.98 fair best 1.94 · SBO	2.02 fair best 2.01 · 1xBet
1	2.83 fair best 2.62 · Betano	1.55 fair best 1.58 · 1xBet
1.25	3.70 fair best 2.92 · 1xBet	1.37 fair best 1.38 · 1xBet

Corners

Total corners

Line	Over	Under
8.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook	40% fair 2.53 best 2.35 · Betano
9.5	48% fair 2.10 best 1.98 · Bet365	52% fair 1.91 best 1.86 · 1xBet
10.5	37% fair 2.74 best 2.55 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.48 · 1xBet

All lines (5)

Line	Over	Under
8.5	60% fair 1.66 best 1.57 · Betfair Sportsbook	40% fair 2.53 best 2.35 · Betano
9	1.84 fair best 1.63 · 1xBet	2.19 fair best 2.08 · 1xBet
9.5	48% fair 2.10 best 1.98 · Bet365	52% fair 1.91 best 1.86 · 1xBet
10	2.43 fair best 2.10 · 1xBet	1.70 fair best 1.62 · 1xBet
10.5	37% fair 2.74 best 2.55 · Betano	63% fair 1.58 best 1.48 · 1xBet

Corner handicap (home team line)

Line	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
−1.5	37% fair 2.68 best 2.40 · 1xBet	63% fair 1.60 best 1.56 · Marathonbet
−1	2.38 fair best 2.17 · 1xBet	1.72 fair best 1.69 · Marathonbet
−0.5	48% fair 2.07 best 1.95 · Bet365	52% fair 1.94 best 1.85 · Bet365
0	1.85 fair best 1.73 · 1xBet	2.18 fair best 2.06 · Marathonbet
+0.5	59% fair 1.70 —	41% fair 2.44 —

Cards (bookings)

Line	Over	Under
5.5	57% fair 1.75 best 1.80 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.34 best 2.25 · Betano
6	2.08 fair best 1.80 · Betano	1.93 fair best 1.98 · Betano
6.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.05 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.73 · 1xBet

All lines (6)

Line	Over	Under
4.5	70% fair 1.44 best 1.32 · Betano	30% fair 3.29 best 3.20 · Betano
5	1.50 fair —	3.00 fair —
5.5	57% fair 1.75 best 1.80 · 1xBet	43% fair 2.34 best 2.25 · Betano
6	2.08 fair best 1.80 · Betano	1.93 fair best 1.98 · Betano
6.5	40% fair 2.52 best 2.05 · Betano	60% fair 1.66 best 1.73 · 1xBet
7	3.44 fair —	1.41 fair —

These prices come from a feed that refreshes every few hours, so a bookmaker above the fair price here is not a value flag: we only flag value against a sharp price at most 90 minutes old. Double chance comes from the 1X2 fair probabilities. On whole and quarter lines part or all of the stake can be refunded, so we show only the fair price there: the break-even price of that bet, not a win probability. Bookmaker prices more than 12% above the fair price are left out as feed errors.

Most likely scores estimate

1–114.8%fair 6.76
0–014.5%fair 6.92
0–112.8%fair 7.82
1–011.3%fair 8.86
0–27.5%fair 13.25
1–27.2%fair 13.84

Total goals

014%
124%
228%
318%
4+15%

Estimated from the fair 1X2 and over/under 2.5 prices (Pinnacle, margin removed) with a Poisson model and a low-score correction. Not a bookmaker's correct-score price: the most likely score happens in only about 1 match in 8. How these estimates did →

Team stats: recent matches

Up to the last 10 matches, all competitions; in brackets: Getafe at home, Rayo Vallecano away.

Team statistics, recent matches
Team statistics, recent matches	Getafe	Rayo Vallecano
Goals scored per game	0.60 (1.20)	1.50 (1.20)
Goals conceded per game	1.10 (0.70)	1.80 (1.80)
Over 2.5 goals	20% (10%)	60% (50%)
Both teams scored	30% (30%)	80% (70%)
Clean sheets	30% (50%)	10% (20%)
Failed to score	40% (20%)	10% (10%)
xG for / against per game	0.67 / 1.23	1.22 / 1.75
Corners for / against per game	3.60 / 5.40	4.40 / 6.60
Cards per game	3.30	3.00

Over 2.5 goals: Getafe in 20% and Rayo Vallecano in 60% of their recent matches; the market prices it at 33% for this match.

Both teams scored in 30% of Getafe's and 80% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches; the market prices both teams to score at 43% here.

From 10 matches for Getafe and 10 for Rayo Vallecano. xG, corners and cards: 10 and 10 matches with statistics. Form is public information, so the fair price already includes it: a team's record is context, not a reason to bet.

Value lifecycle Value still active

Detected · Mon, 12 Oct · 05:30 UTC

X Draw · soft 3.26 (1xBet) · fair 3.07 · edge +6.3%

Opening sharp

2.96

Current Value still active

soft 3.09 · sharp 2.94 · fair 3.02 · edge +2.3%

“Detected” is the moment the flag was first shown on the site and written to our ledger (recorded live since 26 September 2026). For earlier matches the flag was reconstructed afterwards from the prices we had stored, and the time shown is when the rule would have fired: a backtest, not a live record. When the gap closes, we say so instead of pretending the value is still there.

Match context

The last 5 head-to-head meetings we tracked split 0–3–2 (Getafe wins – draws – Rayo Vallecano wins).

Getafe scored 0.6 and conceded 1.2 across their last 5 matches in our results database; Rayo Vallecano scored 1.8 and conceded 2.6 in 5.

The sharp market price on Draw has barely moved since opening (2.96 to 2.94) — no significant new information has repriced this match.

These figures come from our own tracked results and odds snapshots for this fixture — not from a generic stats feed.

Why this price?

Getafe

D L W L D

avg 0.6 scored · 1.2 conceded (last 5)

Rayo Vallecano

D W L W L

avg 1.8 scored · 2.6 conceded (last 5)

Recent head-to-head

03 May 2026 Getafe 0–2 Rayo Vallecano

02 Jan 2026 Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Getafe

02 May 2025 Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Getafe

24 Aug 2024 Getafe 0–0 Rayo Vallecano

13 Apr 2024 Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Getafe

Recent form and head-to-head from our settled results — context behind the fair price. The price itself comes from the sharp market, not from these alone.

Public, timestamped record

Logged before kick-off Mon, 12 Oct 2026 · 05:02 UTC

Prediction record

Pick X/2 · Draw or away

Odds recorded for the prediction 1.42

Closing odds pending

Prediction CLV —

Result Pending

Value-bet record

Recorded when the site showed it, before kick-off. Its seal is in our public export once this match’s row is published, and in the next daily external snapshot (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter); for flags recorded on match day that snapshot comes after kick-off, so the pre-kick-off proof is our own timestamp.

Value selection X · Draw

Odds when flagged 3.09

Fair odds 3.02

Closing odds pending

Value CLV —

Profit (units) —

Result Pending

Prediction hash — integrity fingerprint 1f85a1219f2b5b9b

This hash fingerprints the prediction as recorded: teams, kick-off time, our model probabilities, the Pinnacle prices recorded for it (at logging or, if there were none, the first quoted after logging and before kick-off, which can be written in after the match) and the log time. A later edit to any of them would change it (a rescheduled kick-off changes it too). It does not cover closing prices, the result or the value-bet record above; value flags recorded live have their own seal in the public record. Verify in the public record →

Every day a snapshot of the full public record is published to a public Git repository and timestamped with OpenTimestamps. Timestamped snapshots are never overwritten and the Git history shows any difference, so a later change to a past row is visible by comparing two snapshots. The corrections file lists the corrections we announced. Verify on the public log →

Since 20 June 2026 the public record is snapshotted daily (07:40 Bucharest time: 04:40 UTC in summer time, 05:40 UTC in winter) to an external log. A prediction is externally timestamped before kick-off only if it was in a snapshot taken before the match; predictions logged on match day, or whose Pinnacle price was added after logging, first appear there after kick-off. Value flags have been recorded live only since 26 September 2026; earlier value flags were reconstructed on that date.

Methodology

The fair price comes from the sharp market itself: we strip the margin from Pinnacle-style odds — the most accurate public predictor in existence — and use our calibrated Elo + form model as a cross-check and as the fallback where no sharp price exists. Value is flagged only where a softer bookmaker prices a selection above that fair price, never on long shots (implied probability under 30%), and never beyond a plausible band. Most of the time there is no value — and we say so.

Measured by TipsAudit